21 Media Móvil

Los promedios móviles son muy importantes para mirar al analizar los gráficos. Miro para centrarse en los 21 días, 50 días y 200 días Exponential Moving Medias (EMA) para las poblaciones y los mercados. Estos promedios suelen proporcionar buenos niveles de soporte tanto para las poblaciones como para los mercados. Cuando una acción está en una tendencia ascendente favorable generalmente permanecerá en o sobre su EMA de 21 días. Si una tendencia ascendente se rompe por debajo de la EMA de 21 días hay una buena probabilidad de que caiga de nuevo a su E MA de 50 días. Mientras tanto si la acción se rompe por debajo de su EMA de 50 días hay una buena posibilidad de que pueda volver a su E MA de 200 días. A continuación se muestran algunos ejemplos.

SUNW es un buen ejemplo de un stock que ha permanecido por encima de su EMA de 21 días (línea azul) durante varios meses. Aviso cuando SUNW retirado a principios de octubre todavía se mantuvo cerca de su EMA de 21 días (un signo muy alcista).

QCOM ha sido otra acción fuerte y aunque ha roto su EMA de 21 días (línea azul) durante los últimos meses. También siempre ha encontrado soporte en su EMA de 50 días (línea púrpura) y se ha reunido a nuevos máximos cada vez que probó este nivel de soporte.

RNWK era un fuerte stock de Internet a principios de la primavera de 1999, cuando subió de $ 60 a $ 130 en sólo dos semanas (Puntos A a B). Observe cómo hizo un Movimiento Parabólico con un top Climax (recuerde las señales de venta de gráfico) y luego vendió muy rápidamente pasando de $ 130 a $ 65 por acción en 5 días de negociación. Observe también que una vez que penetró la EMA de 21 días (línea roja) que cayó de nuevo a su EMA de 50 días (línea azul). A continuación, rebotó de los 50 días EMA (punto C) y se reunió brevemente a finales de abril (puntos C a D), pero se vendió en mayo y finalmente se retiró todo el camino de regreso a su EMA 200 días (línea púrpura) a mediados de junio (Punto E).

Esperemos que estos ejemplos señalen la importancia de seguir los promedios móviles, ya que proporcionan niveles de soporte clave para las acciones si están en una tendencia hacia arriba o hacia abajo. Ahora permite aplicar los promedios móviles a los mercados. Haga clic en el siguiente enlace para ver algunos ejemplos.

El promedio móvil es uno de los indicadores tecnológicos más utilizados, gracias a su versatilidad y simplicidad. Es una herramienta para seguir las tendencias dentro del movimiento de una moneda (o stock). Su propósito es detectar y señalar a un distribuidor técnico que ha comenzado una tendencia de reemplazo, un movimiento sostenido hacia arriba o hacia abajo dentro de la moneda, o que una tendencia anterior ha terminado o invertido. Las tendencias de explicación son más fáciles de examinar empleando un promedio móvil es que actúa para silenciar la volatilidad inherente en la observación de la acción de valor por sí sola para reconocer las tendencias. Solapado con la acción de valor la media móvil produce señales de obtener y vender al analista o distribuidor. Las señales tienen un retraso para conectar las condiciones, por lo que un promedio móvil podría ser un indicador de tendencia siguiente.

Haga clic aquí para descargar una nueva herramienta de comercio y estrategia GRATIS

La línea sólida concedida en la figura uno podría ser una cantidad de veinte, media móvil fácil de la unidad monetaria con respecto al dólar de EE. UU. La cantidad que se piensa es de media hora, lo que implica que cada vela representa media hora valor de la información de valor. La cifra muestra aproximadamente 2 días completos de movimiento de valor para el intento EUR / USD. La mecánica de los períodos y la forma en que se hace un promedio móvil viene a continuación.

Algunos comerciantes podrían favorecer el uso de más de un promedio móvil como se delineó en nuestro gráfico. Una vez que emplean una serie de medias móviles los comerciantes utilizarán una estrategia del comercialización del cruce. Estos comerciantes pueden seleccionar una serie de promedios y mirar la tendencia como abajo una vez que la cantidad más corta (más rápido) promedio móvil está residiendo por debajo de la mayor cantidad (más lento) promedio móvil. Esta técnica de explotación sobre un indicador es extraordinariamente útil en los mercados de tendencias y es comparable a la explotación del generador MACD. No hay nada como el mejor indicador de media móvil. Debe ser observado que los promedios móviles pueden moverse de lado en un mercado muy del recorrido. En estas condiciones, los promedios móviles pueden comenzar a agruparse, ya que no se crean nuevos altos o bajos de evaluación y pierden su eficacia. En el caso de que esto ocurra los comerciantes deben contemplar otro indicador basado principalmente en las condiciones imperantes del mercado.

Consultas populares:

La programación del sistema de alerta crossover promedio móvil en

Martes 9 de agosto de 2015 por Ashraf Moos

¿Qué tipo de información obtenemos al establecer la estrategia MACD y 21 Media móvil? Instrucciones:

1) Comercio de corto plazo Inversiones & amp; En Momentum. 2) El MA 21 nos da el impulso de estallidos de precio a través y rompe con la estructura anterior. 3) El HISTOGRAMA MACD confirma el movimiento con la construcción de impulso hacia el lado derecho del comercio. 4) El MACD también invalida 21 señales MA cuando el momento no existe por lo que si tenemos 21 señales MA pero la confirmación del MACD no está allí no entrar en un comercio, ya que no hay impulso en la dirección.

A continuación se presentan las reglas para las opciones de Pago y Llamada basadas en la estrategia MACD y 21 Media móvil: Reglas para Opciones de Llamada

1. El precio se debe negociar debajo de la MA 21, romper por encima y cerrar por encima de ella.

2. El MACD debe ser positivo para validar el impulso al alza

M1 = 5 MIN OPCIONES M5 = 20-30 MIN OPCIONES M15 = OPCIONES DE 45 HORAS

Consulte la configuración siguiente para una opción de llamada:

Reglas para opciones de venta

1. Precio debe ser negociado por encima de la MA 21. Romper abajo y cerrar abajo.

2. El MACD debe volverse negativo.

3. Los tiempos de caducidad serán los mismos que los explicados para las opciones de LLAMADA.

Por favor, utilice una cuenta de demostración gratuita al probar mis estrategias por favor, Esta combinación es muy potente cuando se utiliza correctamente y también muy simple de implementar.

Hay solamente dos reglas así que por favor las siguen correctamente. Por ejemplo: Si la vela se rompe 21 MA hacia abajo y MACD viene de la parte superior ... usted podría pensar en sí mismo, así que probablemente se está preparando para convertirse en negativo, pero no lo hace y usted ha entrado en un mal señal. SIEMPRE ESPERE LA CONFIRMACIÓN DEL MACD.

COMERCIO SOLAMENTE DURANTE EL TIEMPO MÁS LÍQUIDO IE: SESIONES DE LONDRES / NY.

PRUEBE Y SIGUE A LOS PARES MAYORES COMO EUR / USD, GBP / USD, USD / JPY, USD / CAD, USD / CHF Y AUD / USD. ESPERO QUE ENCUENTRE EL ÉXITO UTILIZANDO ESTA ESTRATEGIA. SIGUIENTE ICHIMOKU. Y luego se centrará en las lecciones de vídeo para las 4 estrategias Ive le dio :))))) feliz comercio peeps!

Únase a mí y otros comerciantes en el Grupo de Señales de Mike en Facebook y no olvide compartir sus comentarios a continuación.

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Etiquetado con la estrategia 21 Moving Average

Martes 9 de agosto de 2015 por Ashraf Moos

¿Qué tipo de información obtenemos al establecer la estrategia MACD y 21 Media móvil? Instrucciones:

A continuación se presentan las reglas para las opciones de Pago y Llamada basadas en la estrategia MACD y 21 Media móvil: Reglas para Opciones de Llamada

1. El precio se debe negociar debajo de la MA 21, romper por encima y cerrar por encima de ella.

2. El MACD debe ser positivo para validar el impulso al alza

M1 = 5 MIN OPCIONES M5 = 20-30 MIN OPCIONES M15 = OPCIONES DE 45 HORAS

Consulte la configuración siguiente para una opción de llamada:

Reglas para opciones de venta

1. Precio debe ser negociado por encima de la MA 21. Romper abajo y cerrar abajo.

2. El MACD debe volverse negativo.

3. Los tiempos de caducidad serán los mismos que los explicados para las opciones de LLAMADA.

Por favor, utilice una cuenta de demostración gratuita al probar mis estrategias por favor, Esta combinación es muy potente cuando se utiliza correctamente y también muy simple de implementar.

Hay solamente dos reglas así que por favor las siguen correctamente. Por ejemplo: Si la vela se rompe 21 MA hacia abajo y MACD viene de la parte superior ... usted podría pensar en sí mismo, así que probablemente se está preparando para convertirse en negativo, pero no lo ha hecho y usted ha entrado en un mal señal. SIEMPRE ESPERE LA CONFIRMACIÓN DEL MACD.

COMERCIO SOLAMENTE DURANTE EL TIEMPO MÁS LÍQUIDO IE: SESIONES DE LONDRES / NY.

Únase a mí y otros comerciantes en el Grupo de Señales de Mike en Facebook y no se olvide de compartir sus comentarios a continuación.

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Flujos de fondos a los ETFs internacionales: ¿Qué están haciendo los inversionistas?

SPY Cruce Promedio Móvil de 100 Días el 21 de Octubre: Ese Positivo

Promedios móviles SPY

El 21 de octubre, el SPDR S & P 500 ETF (SPY) cerró en $ 203.04, por encima de su media móvil de 100 días de $ 197.80. Cerró por debajo de sus medias móviles de 50 días y 20 días de $ 206 y $ 203.90, respectivamente.

Entonces, ¿qué significa cuando una acción está por debajo de sus promedios móviles? Los promedios móviles se pueden analizar de dos maneras. El primero es un crossover de precios. Esto ocurre cuando un precio de las acciones cruza un promedio móvil, señalando un cambio potencial en la tendencia. El segundo método utiliza medias móviles de dos o más longitudes. Al mover promedios en un marco de tiempo más corto cruzar un promedio móvil más largo, se considera una señal de compra, y viceversa.

Agrandar el gráfico

En el gráfico anterior, podemos ver el precio de las acciones de SPY se aproxima a la media móvil de 20 días y puede cruzar pronto. Esto se considera una tendencia positiva.

Agrandar el gráfico

Índice de Fuerza Relativa

El Índice de Fuerza Relativa (o RSI) es un indicador técnico utilizado para estudiar los niveles de sobrecompra y sobreventa de una acción. Generalmente, si el RSI es superior a 70, indica que la acción está sobrecomprada. Una cifra RSI debajo de 30 sugiere que una acción ha sido sobreventa.

En el gráfico anterior, podemos ver que el RSI de SPY fue de 50,2 el 16 de octubre. Eso sugiere que está cerca de los niveles de sobrecompra y que se puede considerar sobrevalorado.

Información general de SPY

El SPDR S & P 500 ETF (SPY) (QQQ) rastrea el desempeño del S & amp; P 500 Index, que sirve como punto de referencia para los mercados bursátiles de Estados Unidos. SPY es una cartera diversificada de activos que distribuye su fondo en múltiples sectores, tales como el 19,6% en tecnología de la información, el 16,5% en el sector financiero, el 15,4% en el sector sanitario, el 12,9% en el consumo discrecional, el 10,1% 7,7% en energía, 3,1% en materiales, 2,9% en servicios públicos y 2,3% en servicios de telecomunicaciones.

Las principales acciones de SPY son Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Exxon Mobile (XOM) y Johnson & amp; Johnson (JNJ).

SPY es el ETF más negociado en los Estados Unidos con un volumen diario negociado promedio de 4,9 millones de acciones. Con una capitalización de mercado de $ 178.2 mil millones a partir del 21 de octubre, es también el mayor ETF en los Estados Unidos.

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Negociación de promedios móviles con menos Whipsaws

El sistema de media móvil es mejor de lejos. En primer lugar, podemos aprovechar el 2: 1 (por lo tanto, el aumento de CAGR hasta aproximadamente el 13%) y, sin embargo, nuestra reducción máxima va a ser comparable a la compra y mantenimiento. Además, está en el mercado sólo el 70% & # 8211; Menor riesgo y, probablemente, los retornos pueden ser impulsados por poner el dinero para trabajar en activos alternativos.

Un problema con este tipo de sistemas son los whipsaws. El sistema funciona bien cuando el precio se mantiene alejado de la media móvil. Sin embargo, en estrecha proximidad, uno puede tener que entrar / salir en sucesión perdiendo dinero en el camino.

Una forma de abordar este problema es usar una línea & # 8222; Para activar las salidas (o las entradas, para el caso). Podría ser una banda de porcentaje, pero que casi no es universal. Mejor llevar la volatilidad a la imagen.

Vamos a hacer algo más robusto como ilustración.

Primero aplicamos el promedio móvil no a los precios, sino a los retornos (una interpretación del impulso ajustado por error de David Varadi). El & # 8220; amortiguado & # 8221; El sistema va largo cuando el promedio se convierte en positivo, pero para salir, deja algún cojín por debajo de la media móvil. ¿Qué ganamos?

Aproximación anual promedio

Para comparar las manzanas con las manzanas, agregamos dos sistemas. El primero (denominado EA) utiliza retornos ajustados por error para calcular el SMA, pero entra y sale cuando el SMA cruza la línea 0. El & # 8220; amortiguado & # 8221; Versión es el sistema implementado por el código anterior.

Incluso después de tener en cuenta que las nuevas estrategias permanece más tiempo en el mercado, parece haber una ligera mejora. Pero eso no es el punto. El & # 8220; amortiguado & # 8221; Enfoque hizo 4 operaciones en total & # 8211; Salió para los dos mercados bajistas. Eso es alrededor de 4 comercios. El enfoque no amortiguado tenía 80 operaciones. Misión cumplida en otras palabras.

Comentarios

Hola, ¿podría explicar la lógica detrás de la fórmula de retornos ajustados adj. rets = sqrt (runSum (rets * rets, 10) / 9). También de donde proviene el peso de 10/9? ¿Por qué no 10/10? Gracias

Debo estar perdiendo algo en su código: rets son positivos y negativos, pero adj. rets son todos positivos (que cuadrados los rets), por lo tanto sma es siempre positivo y por lo tanto, nunca hay una señal de venta. Su adj. rets va más alto como los retornos se vuelven más pequeños (es decir, adj. rets pico hacia el final de los mercados bajistas).

¿Acabo de perder una señal en algún lugar? No ejecutar R, pero implementar esto como una prueba en mi propio sistema y no conseguir lo que esperaba.

PD. Nunca había oído hablar de usar un simple SMA 200 como este (probablemente debido a todos los whipsaws), así que habría esperado que usted probara una cruz de muerte / cruz de oro (SMA 50/200) en su lugar. El cruce de oro / muerte es muy similar a los resultados de EA reportados (tanto para el CAGR como para el máximo) por mi prueba & # 8230; Pero me gustaría que su EA trabajara para ver por mí mismo.

¡Ah! Creo que tal vez quería poner a & # 8220; rets & # 8221; En el cálculo sma en lugar de & # 8220; adj. rets & # 8221 ;. ¿No es claro de este código de R cuál es el período para sus rets (es decir, una vuelta de 1 día? Vuelta de 1 mes?), Pero si utilizo una vuelta de 21 barras con datos diarios, consigo un EA comparable a la suya (CAGR 9.5%, exposición 75%, DD máx. 19.3%). Pero hasta ahora no se puede obtener EA amortiguado por encima del 10% CAGR, por lo que trabajar más para ver si estoy correctamente la duplicación de su algoritmo.

Bueno, tuve un error en el código & # 8211; Ver los comentarios y el código. Mis disculpas. Sí, uno puede usar los retornos directamente, pero de mi experiencia es mejor para normalizarlos por volatilidad. Una forma de hacerlo es tomar un SD corto (o SD usando 0 para la media, como yo) y dividir el retorno por ese valor.

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Radware (RDWR): Alerta de Crossover de media móvil 21 de agosto de 2015

By Zacks Equity Research Publicado el 21 de agosto 2015 |

Radware Ltd. (RDWR - Snapshot Report) podría ser una acción a evitar desde una perspectiva técnica, ya que la firma está viendo tendencias desfavorables en el frente de cruce de media móvil. Recientemente, la media móvil de 50 días para RDWR estalló por debajo de la Media móvil simple de 200 días, lo que sugiere una tendencia bajista a corto plazo.

Esto ya ha comenzado a ocurrir, ya que la acción se ha movido más bajo por 2.8% en las últimas cuatro semanas. Y con el crossover promedio móvil reciente, los inversionistas tienen que pensar que el comercio más desfavorable está por delante para el stock de RDWR.

Si eso no era suficiente, Radware no se ve demasiado bien desde una perspectiva de revisión de estimaciones de ganancias tampoco. Parece como si muchos analistas han estado reduciendo sus expectativas de ganancias para las acciones últimamente, lo que normalmente no es una buena señal de lo que vendrá.

Considere que en los últimos 30 días, se han reducido 2 estimaciones, mientras que sólo ninguna se ha movido más alto. Añadir esto en un movimiento similar menor en la estimación de consenso, y hay un montón de razones para ser bajista aquí.

Es por eso que actualmente tenemos un Zacks Rango # 4 (Vender) en este stock y están buscando que a bajo rendimiento en las próximas semanas. Por lo tanto, o bien evitar este stock o considerar saltar barco hasta que las estimaciones y los factores técnicos a su vez para RDWR.

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Zacks lanza 7 mejores acciones para abril de 2016

Estos 7 fueron escogidos a mano de la lista de 220 Zacks Rango # 1 Strong Buys con las revisiones de la estimación de ganancias que están barriendo hacia arriba. Sus precios de las acciones se espera que aumente más rápido que los demás.

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En el centro de todo lo que hacemos es un fuerte compromiso con la investigación independiente y compartir sus descubrimientos provechosos con los inversores. Esta dedicación a dar a los inversores una ventaja comercial llevó a la creación de nuestro probado Zacks Rank sistema de clasificación de valores. Desde 1986 casi triplicó el S & P 500 con una ganancia media de + 26% por año. Estos rendimientos cubren un período de 1986-2011 y fueron examinados y atestiguados por Baker Tilly, una firma de contabilidad independiente.

Visite el rendimiento para obtener información sobre los números de rendimiento mostrados anteriormente.

Visite www. zacksdata. com para obtener nuestros datos y contenido para su aplicación móvil o sitio web.

Precios en tiempo real de BATS. Citas diferidas de Sungard.

Los datos de NYSE y AMEX tienen al menos 20 minutos de retraso. Los datos de NASDAQ tienen al menos 15 minutos de retraso.

3 acciones para comprar con excelentes promedios móviles

Tecnología de dispositivos integrados (IDTI)

Integrated Device Technology (IDTI) diseña, desarrolla, fabrica y comercializa una amplia gama de productos y módulos semiconductores de alto rendimiento.

Las aplicaciones de los productos de Integrated Device incluyen equipos de datos y telecomunicaciones (como enrutadores, concentradores, conmutadores, estaciones base celulares y otros dispositivos), computadoras personales y periféricos y servidores en red (como matrices RAID, servidores e impresoras).

Justo cuando parecía que las acciones de IDTI estaban rodando, un movimiento en el volumen pesado empujó las acciones después de golpear el apoyo a 18 dólares. El rally empujó las acciones por encima de 21 dólares antes de la resistencia anterior.

Con acciones negociando muy cerca de un máximo de 52 semanas, el volumen ha aumentado en los últimos días. Un promedio móvil de 21 días positivamente inclinado proporciona soporte a $ 21.02.

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Más de InvestorPlace

Artículo impreso de InvestorPlace Media, http://investorplace. com/2015/06/21-day-moving-average-jll-plab-idti/.

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Alarma de cruce promedio móvil: Coherente (COHR) 21 de agosto de 2015

By Zacks Equity Research Publicado el 21 de agosto 2015 |

Coherent Inc. (COHR - Snapshot Report) podría ser una acción a evitar desde una perspectiva técnica, ya que la firma está viendo tendencias desfavorables en el frente de cruce de media móvil. Recientemente, la media móvil de 50 días para COHR estalló por debajo de 200 días promedio móvil simple, lo que sugiere a corto plazo bajista.

Esto ya ha comenzado a ocurrir, ya que la acción se ha movido más bajo por 5.8% en las últimas cuatro semanas. Y con el crossover promedio móvil reciente, los inversionistas tienen que pensar que un comercio más desfavorable está por delante para la acción de COHR.

Si eso no fuera suficiente, Coherent no parece demasiado grande desde una perspectiva de revisión de estimaciones de ganancias tampoco. Parece como si muchos analistas han estado reduciendo sus expectativas de ganancias para las acciones últimamente, lo que normalmente no es una buena señal de lo que vendrá.

Considere que en los últimos 30 días, 1 estimación se ha reducido, mientras que sólo ninguno se han movido más alto. Añadir esto en un movimiento similar menor en la estimación de consenso, y hay un montón de razones para ser bajista aquí.

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Benzinga`s Volume Movers

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Gestión del riesgo con un promedio simple de movimiento (SMA)

El Simple Moving Average (SMA) es un indicador de tendencia popular. Cuando se grafica en un gráfico, se filtra el ruido del día a día en los precios de seguridad, revelando la tendencia a largo plazo. El siguiente gráfico muestra el Fondo TSP C junto con su SMA de 10 meses:

Los inversores pueden utilizar la SMA como una señal para tiempo la compra y venta de una seguridad. En una tendencia al alza, el inversionista compra la seguridad cuando su precio de cierre mensual cruza por encima de la SMA, sube la tendencia y luego la vende cuando la dirección de la tendencia se invierte y el precio cruza por debajo de la SMA. A continuación se muestra el mismo gráfico que antes, con las señales de compra (B) y venta (S) añadidas. Se puede ver que la estrategia tenía su última señal de compra el 31/01/2012:

Ahora vamos a usar estas señales BUY / SELL en un simple sistema de seguimiento de tendencias con las siguientes reglas: Comprar el Fondo TSP C cuando el precio de cierre mensual sobrepasa su SMA de 10 meses. De lo contrario, venderlo e invertir los fondos en el Fondo G (una inversión libre de riesgo). Los resultados.

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TA Basics (11): Moving Tipos medios, uso y períodos de tiempo (longitud)

Dado que mis títulos se están poniendo un poco largos, comenzaré a resumir el Análisis Técnico como 'TA' en mis artículos que he estado formulando para mi serie de fundamentos de Trader's Corner en curso. Antes de lanzar en mi tema de media móvil voy a hacer breves comentarios relacionados con las consultas que recibí durante las últimas 24 horas.

En cuanto a cómo me di cuenta de que un rally / rebote a corto plazo podría ser visto el martes de esta semana, fue una conjetura educada basada en el gráfico horario y la sobreventa de los principales índices habían llegado el viernes (8/13) el 21 - índice de fuerza relativa o RSI. El RSI y su utilidad como insumo comercial fue mi tema la semana pasada en este espacio. Por otra parte, el S & P 500 (SPX) se había acercado a este viernes cerca de recuperar la mitad de la última subida. Un retroceso común es de alrededor de la mitad del movimiento previo antes de que un rally de contra-tendencia se establezca y eso es lo que sucedió.

Un factor secundario en mi pensamiento fue que el martes y el jueves son bastante a menudo "días de reversión". Puesto que la tendencia ha estado abajo, pensé que por lo menos un rebote de la sobreventa debe ocurrir el martes. No estoy anticipando un rally en esta coyuntura que lleva de nuevo a o a través de los máximos anteriores, ya que imagino más de un lado para bajar la tendencia.

Por otra parte, en el caso de la Dow 30 (INDU) al menos, que últimamente ha estado mostrando una buena fortaleza relativa en comparación con el mercado en su conjunto, INDU estaba encontrando apoyo en su 50 días Simple Moving Average o SMA. Un rally en el Dow debería llevar un rebote en acciones en general. A diferencia de los 50 días, la media móvil de 200 días, parecía estar 'actuando' como resistencia ayer y hoy como se puede ver en mi segundo gráfico. Los promedios móviles son el tema de este rincón del comerciante y el siguiente.

TIPOS MEDIANOS EN MOVIMIENTO, USO Y PERIODOS DE TIEMPO (LONGITUD): '

Como pieza de referencia, explicaré primero cómo se construyen los diferentes promedios móviles y luego utilizo algunos ejemplos de gráficos de mi libro (Análisis técnico esencial) para ver cómo un promedio frente a otro puede darle un borde de negociación.

El promedio móvil simple (SMA) es el tipo más común de media móvil y uno que utilizo la mayor parte del tiempo y es también el tipo que la mayoría de los comerciantes utilizan. Un "simple", o como también se puede llamar, una aritmética. El promedio móvil se calcula sumando el precio de cierre de una acción o índice de acciones (o cualquier otro instrumento) para X número de períodos (de negociación) y dividiendo el resultado por el mismo número de períodos de tiempo. Debo mencionar que hay usos hechos para un promedio móvil de altos y bajos. Por supuesto, los promedios a corto plazo (por ejemplo, 5, 8 períodos) responden rápidamente a los cambios en el precio del instrumento subyacente, mientras que los promedios a más largo plazo (por ejemplo 21, 50, etc.) reaccionan lentamente. El número de periodos de negociación utilizados se determina por la configuración de longitud.

Generalmente, cuando usted ve u oye el término "promedio móvil", está en referencia a un promedio móvil simple o SMA. Esta distinción puede ser importante si la comparación es a otro tipo de media móvil, un promedio móvil exponencial (EMA).

A veces, el cálculo de SMA podría ser la única opción en línea para un estudio de media móvil o indicador en sitios de gráficos en línea que tienen un estudio de media móvil como parte de sus herramientas de indicadores. Un sitio de gráficos en línea bastante sofisticado como Big Charts permitirá la colocación de hasta 3 diferentes Indicadores Simples de Media Móvil (SMA), así como hasta 3 diferentes Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Voy a llegar a la EMA en breve.

Con PC residentes paquetes de software de análisis técnico como TradeStation, etc hay opciones disponibles para dar más peso a la actividad de precios más reciente. Un promedio móvil ponderado asigna un mayor valor porcentual al cierre de X número de barras recientes, ya sea que represente un período intradiario (por ejemplo, hora), un día, una semana o un mes, dando así una ponderación REDUCIDA a precios más antiguos. El efecto práctico de esto es hacer que la línea de media móvil ponderada siga los precios actuales más de cerca, con menos de un retraso que una media móvil simple regular).

Tal carga frontal es el método más popular de calcular una media móvil ponderada pero no es la única posibilidad. Una variación llamada escalonamiento lineal. Asigna una ponderación de incremento fijo a cada día que depende de la duración del promedio. Por ejemplo, en un promedio ponderado de 5 días, el día más reciente es 5 veces el peso del primer día del período de 5 días; El día anterior es 4 veces el peso del primer día; El tercer día es 3 veces el peso del primer día del período y así sucesivamente.

El promedio exponencialmente "suavizado" (una media móvil exponencial o EMA) es un tipo de promedio móvil ponderado que es probablemente la segunda variación del promedio móvil más popular. El EMA es probablemente mejor conocido a través de su uso en la Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicador. Este método permite que la reciente actividad de precios genere un cambio más rápido en un precio promedio. Se utiliza un tipo de suavizado que asigna un valor porcentual (por ejemplo, 15) a la "barra" del último período y este valor se agregará a un porcentaje del cierre anterior. El porcentaje del día anterior, en el caso de un gráfico diario, será el inverso del porcentaje ponderado; p. ej. 15 restados de 100, lo que equivale a 85% (100 Гўв,¬вЂњ 15).

Debido a este método de cálculo EMA, todos los valores de la media móvil diaria se modifican una vez que se produce la primera ponderación exponencial. Cuanto mayor sea el porcentaje de ponderación dado al cierre más reciente, más sensible será la media móvil resultante al cambio de precio más reciente. Todos los datos utilizados anteriormente son siempre parte del nuevo resultado, aunque con significación disminuida en el tiempo.

Debido a la inclusión de datos antiguos en una media móvil suavizada exponencialmente, un "alisamiento" del 50% parece más lento que un promedio móvil simple de 2 días y un cálculo de suavizado al 10% hará que el promedio resultante sea más lento que un promedio simple de 10 días media móvil. A medida que la tendencia continúa en su dirección, la media móvil exponencialmente suavizada retrasará la tendencia más que una media móvil ponderada debido a esta inclusión de todos los cierres anteriores, que es el factor de "suavizado". El promedio móvil más largo del tipo de media móvil simple, de igual ponderación, se retrasará aún más, ya que los cambios de precios más recientes se promediarán con muchos cierres anteriores.

En el gráfico de acciones a continuación, se aplica un promedio de 50 días simple, ponderado y suavizado exponencialmente. Para el período de tiempo mostrado, el desfase es mayor con la media móvil simple y menos con la media móvil ponderada. Ambos promedios móviles ponderados, ponderados y exponenciales, en el gráfico reaccionan más rápidamente a un cambio en la tendencia que el promedio simple.

También puede ver en el gráfico anterior de Wal-Mart que el promedio móvil ponderado actúa mejor como una especie de "línea de tendencia curvada" en el avance y que los mínimos observados a la derecha (finales de 1999 / principios de 2000) tienden a rebotar Del promedio ponderado más a menudo.

Para períodos de tiempo más cortos, como en mi siguiente gráfico, que utiliza un período de 10 días o una longitud media móvil. Hay poca diferencia aparente entre las tres variaciones del promedio móvil, ya que todos los tipos de media móvil trazan un fondo doble o 'W' junto con los precios:

Tomando una visión cercana de un período de 30 días, cuando hubo un cambio de tendencia menor, como se muestra en nuestro siguiente gráfico, se hace evidente que el primer promedio móvil para subir fue la EMA:

La media móvil exponencial junto con la media móvil ponderada puede hacerse más o menos sensible a los cambios de precios más recientes por los factores de "ponderación" que se utilizan. Por supuesto, ambos tipos aumentarán o bajarán significativamente más rápido que un promedio móvil simple a menos que todos sean de una duración muy corta, como un promedio de 3 días.

A los 10 días o más, la ganancia en una "señal" de cruce puede ser de unos días, por lo que el uso de medias ponderadas en el frente será atractivo para los comerciantes que pueden hacer frente a los períodos de obtener "falso" o giros pre-maduros en el ponderado Ya que son más sensibles a los recientes movimientos de grandes precios.

Por lo general asumo que las medias móviles ponderadas son las más apropiadas para operaciones a más corto plazo, donde la transacción promedio se completa en 1 día a 1 semana. Los promedios móviles simples, especialmente en el rango de longitud 50-200, son apropiados para un marco de tiempo orientado a la inversión de mayor duración, que es de muchas semanas a meses, o incluso años, mientras persista una tendencia importante.

La importancia del promedio exponencialmente suavizado será principalmente de interés para la mayoría de los usuarios de indicadores técnicos básicos, ya que el popular indicador de Divergencia de Convergencia de Media Móvil o MACD ( 'macdee'), utiliza el método exponencialmente suavizado para calcular un promedio de precios.

MOVIENDO PERIODOS DE TIEMPO MEDIO (LONGITUD)

Ha habido muchas preguntas que he recibido en el pasado, en cuanto a qué longitud media móvil es "mejor". La respuesta es que depende de su horizonte comercial o de inversión. Un ajuste de 5 a 8 o 9 longitudes será útil para ver cambios en la tendencia a corto plazo. 13 en hasta 21 pondrá de relieve los cambios en la tendencia intermedia de 2-3 semanas o más; Yo más a menudo el uso de media móvil de 21 días para realizar un seguimiento de la tendencia de 2-3 semanas en los índices bursátiles.

¿Qué longitud media móvil 'funciona' mejor en las poblaciones individuales en términos de resaltar los puntos de apoyo y resistencia varía. Usted tiene que jugar con los números como usted consigue saber la acción. Por cierto, los "cambios" en la tendencia se refieren no sólo a las posibles reversiones de las tendencias. Sino también a una aceleración de la tendencia relativa a la media móvil. Los promedios móviles simples de 50 y 200 días son probablemente las medias móviles más usadas en los inventarios y los índices bursátiles de los inversionistas.

Es posible que vea un número "predeterminado" en los estudios de promedio móvil como un número como 9 y necesita cambiar el ajuste (la entrada de longitud) a lo que desea. Yo prefiero un ajuste de longitud de 21 en las cartas por hora como un medio de seguimiento de la tendencia de 2-3 días.

El uso de 21 se explica por mi afición por el uso de 5, 8, 13 o 21, parte de la serie de números de fibonacci; Es decir, las series de números 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, etc., donde cada número es la suma de los dos números anteriores. Tiendo a utilizar 8 como mi longitud para los promedios móviles en las listas semanales y mensuales de acciones e índice y una media móvil de 21 días (o hora) en gráficos diarios (y por hora).

Para las tendencias de stock intermedio o secundario, no hay duda de que el promedio móvil de 50 días o 10 semanas (5 días de negociación en una semana: 10 X 5 = 50) refleja una "convención" de longitud que es muy común para las existencias . La razón de esto es la longitud particular, en comparación con otros, es en parte una convención, pero también puede reflejar el hecho de que 50 es 1/2 de 100 en términos de días, y 1/10 de 100 en términos de semanas. 100 y sus fracciones y múltiplos, es un número significativo en nuestro sistema decimal y en el comercio. Sospecho también que 10 semanas es simplemente el tiempo suficiente para "capturar" las tendencias del mercado que son de duración de tendencia intermedia o secundaria.

Para mostrar o capturar la tendencia a largo plazo (principal), la media móvil de 200 días gana como la media móvil sencilla favorita, el tipo más común de media móvil. Los 200 días se usan o se notan diariamente o semanalmente por muchos participantes orientados a la inversión del mercado de valores. Algunos libros gráficos y comentaristas se refieren al promedio equivalente en semanales semanales, como el promedio móvil de 40 semanas.

Ejemplos de estas longitudes de movimiento promedio común se ven en las 3 cartas siguientes.

Y, la SMA de 200 días:

Mi último gráfico es un ejemplo de un promedio móvil de 40 semanas en un gráfico semanal de más largo plazo y equivalente a un promedio móvil de 200 días. Al cambiar los períodos de tiempo de diario a semanalmente, usted necesita recordar cambiar el ajuste de la longitud media móvil para ver la tendencia equivalente en un gráfico semanal.

Dejar los valores y cambiar los marcos de tiempo puede ser de interés también, pero entonces usted está comparando "manzanas y naranjas", por así decirlo. Un promedio móvil de 50 semanas abarca casi un año completo en lugar de las 10 semanas de comercio medido por la media móvil de 50 días.

Muchos analistas, comerciantes y gerentes de dinero definen la tendencia a largo plazo de si una acción o un índice se está negociando por encima o por debajo de su promedio móvil de 200 días (40 semanas). La tendencia secundaria (mercado bursátil) se puede definir por así decirlo por un uso similar de la media móvil de 50 días (10 semanas).

Si estaba comprando una acción para una compra y retención a largo plazo que había estado en una tendencia hacia abajo o hacia los lados, un requisito mínimo podría ser un cierre por encima de la media móvil de 50 días. Más conclusivo es un cierre por encima de la media móvil de 200 días. Sugiero también explorar el uso de una combinación de estos dos promedios móviles. Por ejemplo, la compra de una acción en una penetración inicial al alza de la media móvil de 21 o 50 días, especialmente si hay otras consideraciones de gráfico alcista (por ejemplo, una ruptura por encima de alguna línea de tendencia clave), pero sólo teniendo la mitad del número de acciones De una compra habitual. Una compra adicional podría hacerse en un avance por encima de la media móvil de 200 días.

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Gráfico de la semana: Ratio de compra de acciones mensual de CBOE

Para propósitos de negociación, me adhiero con bastante fidelidad a un promedio móvil exponencial de 10 días (EMA) de la CBOE equity put a call ratio (CPCE) como un factor de suavizado adecuado para señalar a corto a intermedio las oportunidades de negociación swing. Sin embargo, hay ocasiones en que una media móvil a más largo plazo, como una media móvil simple de 21 días, es una mejor herramienta para identificar los extremos persistentes en la actividad de put y call. Esta semana es una de esas ocasiones.

El gráfico de la semana siguiente examina el historial completo del coeficiente de put to call de CBOE, que data del 21 de octubre de 2003, y aplica un SMA de 21 días (línea azul punteada) para generar lo que yo llamo el capital mensual puesto a Relación de llamadas. Como muestra el gráfico, las lecturas por debajo de 0,60 han sido generalmente un buen momento para tomar ganancias en posiciones largas y / o iniciar posiciones cortas. De hecho, el nivel actual de 0,53 sólo se ha visto en un caso anterior, en enero de 2004. Ese período sólo pasó a ser exactamente 13 meses después de que el índice S & amp; P 500 había tocado fondo y comenzó una fuerte subida de toros. También marcó el comienzo de un período en el que las acciones disminuyeron durante diez meses, antes de reanudar un rally que duraría hasta octubre de 2007.

Por supuesto, no hay nada mágico acerca de la equidad baja ponen a los cocientes de la llamada o los mítines stalling después de un aumento de 13 meses, pero los toros y los osos por igual deben ciertamente tomar nota del precedente histórico.

Para más información sobre temas relacionados, se recomienda a los lectores que consulten:

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Promedio móvil simple (SMA)

The Simple Moving Average or SMA is probably the most commonly used technical indicator of all. It can be calculated by taking the average of a data series (usually the close price) over a set number of periods. As each period progresses the last value is dropped out of the calculation and the latest one takes its place; hence the ‘Moving’ característica.

Financial data is notorious for being full of noise. Smoothing methods like averages help to filter out some of that noise so that a clearer picture of what is really going on can be revealed. Test results show however the Simple Moving Average is certainly not the most effective smoothing method available. Why then do we use the SMA in the weekly ETF HQ Report?

Some Simple Moving Averages such as the 50, 100 and 200 day SMA are so widely followed that they regularly become important support and resistance levels. There is no reason why this should happen other than the fact that they have become a self fulfilling prophecy. If enough people think that a level is important then it becomes important:

Above is an example the 200 day SMA acting as support and being seen as a buying opportunity for over a year. With so many points of inflection on this average the eventual break was viewed by traders as a significant technical failure and a flood of selling ensued.

For those of you who use Excel in your trading I have built a spreadsheet for you that contains a simple moving average. You are probably wondering why you would want to download such a simple indicator but this one is useful because it will automatically adjust to the length that you specify. We find this a useful feature and hopefully you will as well. Get the file at the following link near the bottom of the page under Downloads – Technical Indicators: Simple Moving Average (SMA). Please let us know if you find it useful.

Moving Average Test Results

Have you ever wondered which is better; a simple or exponential moving average? Well we tested both along with a double exponential moving average through 300 years of data across 16 global markets to reveal the answer. Here are the results – Simple vs. Exponential Moving Average

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Moving Average Indicators: As Support & Resistance (TA #26)

Moving averages are not unlike trendlines; they not only help measure the direction and momentum (the relative angle) of a trend, but can alert us to when a trend has reversed on a short to intermediate-term basis.

A moving average is a lagging indicator based on past closes only. (There are also moving averages of the highs and lows occasionally used.) A significant difference between trendline use and moving averages is that, whereas the break of a trendline can alert us on a pretty immediate basis that a trend is reversing, we need to wait usually to see if a close puts a stock or index above/below a key moving average. Moreover, I generally have a rule of thumb that it takes TWO consecutive Closes above/below certain moving averages to 'confirm' a short-term trend reversal; or, at least that the dominant trend has been interrupted for some period. Use the two day 'rule' takes out some instances where stops were run, but the trend reasserts itself the next day.

While it's at the end of the latest trading period being measured that we see if the most recent Close is above or below the moving average, we often see hourly, daily or weekly highs or lows bounce off from key moving averages. This can be contrasted to when prices penetrate or pierce a trendline, where this penetration is seen immediately, although we also want to see if the Close is going to pierce the trendline in question.

I have some very recent examples of price action relative to what I find is a key moving average (21-days) for bellwether stocks and especially for the major stock indexes. Use of a 21-day moving average is especially useful for trader types. Those with an investment orientation will tend to use a 50-day moving average; i. e. a move above or below this average suggests a possible shift in the intermediate-term trend. The bigger trend picture tends to get 'defined' by where prices are relative to a 200-day (40 week) moving average. 'Fundamentally' oriented fund managers, who might look at almost nothing 'technical' WILL pay attention to the 200-day average.

As to my suggested use of the 21-day average for the major indexes, the Dow 30 (INDU) chart is of interest which is my first chart. You'll notice that INDU came down to the area of the moving average but the lows held above it. The rebound that followed shouldn't have been surprising, although the Dow hadn't dropped much in terms of the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggesting a continued tendency for the market to rally in spite of being relatively overbought . 'Relative' being the key word here as stocks or indexes in very strong trends should be evaluated more on the basis of trend following type indicators, which includes the use of moving averages.

I mention on my chart notation above that the S&P pierced its 21-day moving average. The S&P 500 (SPX) daily chart is shown next. While SPX did Close below this key trading average, the index came back the next day as the lows were about equal and on a closing basis, SPX was back above the average. What about an index where there were 2 consecutive Closes below the 21-day average? We saw this with the tech heavy Nasdaq.

The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) chart, reflecting the biggest tech stocks and having led the market for months, is shown next in terms of TWO moving average: the 21-day and the 34-day closing moving average. Why 21 and why 34 anyway in terms of the length setting for an average? For the same reason I tend to use of 8 and 13 and sometimes 55 as an indicator input (including the RSI). These numbers are part of the Fibonacci number series: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 55, etc. The most recent TWO numbers add up to the next number in the series. Fairly simple but the concept of the Fib numbers tends to reflect numerical markers that show the progression of a trend. And the way that rabbits multiple! Well, that was how the Italian mathematician, Fibonacci, came up with this progression in the middle ages.

The next number in the Fibonacci series after 21 is 34. That length setting for NDX is of interest in my next chart and my notations on the chart show why.

I have some historical examples of how certain other moving averages in common use helped 'define' resistance.

The decline seen in my next chart took the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) under the widely followed 200-day moving average. Use of the 50-day (you could use 55 also) average suggested some additional areas to short bellwether tech stocks or to buy puts in the NDX. The fact that some of these shorting opportunities were at resistance implied by the top end of the downtrend channel was a definite 'confirming' technical indication of resistance. I am always looking for as many technical factors as possible that line up bullishly or bearishly.

Other indicators that were of interest in conjunction with moving averages in the COMP chart seen above occurred in mid-March of the year shown, when COMP was both deflected from the area of its 200-day moving average AND was registering as overbought according to the stochastic indicator. While there was one close above the average in this example, the lack of follow through the next day, given the overbought conditions, was the tip off to buy index puts and/or to short bellwether stocks in the index.

In the period shown above, the S&P 500 rebounded to above the 50-day average for two days running and had one Close above the upper end of the bearish downtrend channel. This pattern suggested at a minimum that it would be prudent to close out bearish short-term trading positions. By the way, the rally that started during the late-2002 period shown, ended up going to the 1100 area (by early 2004).

We can anticipate that a fairly major technical milestone comes with a 'test' of the 200-day moving average. When we say that a moving average is tested the reference is usually to whether a stock or index close pierces (goes through) the moving average in question or NOT. If prices pierce the moving average, there is then a watch on whether on subsequent hours, days or weeks, prices ALSO stay above or below the moving average in question. As long as this is the case, I would tend to trade more heavily on the long side on pullbacks.

For shorter-term options trading, the key moving averages to follow the trend will range from as low as 5 or 8, on up to 13 or 21, all length settings for daily charts. In a bearish downtrend, a move up to but not beyond these averages are often put buying opportunities, especially in the case of the 21-day average. There are times where there is of course only ONE close above/below some key moving average as the item in question lacks follow through in the same direction the next day.

In the case of a single close above/below a key moving average and where other technical factors leave you in doubt about whether this event is merely a fake-out move or whether it's a trend reversal, it can be useful to wait and see if there are the TWO consecutive closes above or below the moving average. Typically or most often, a true trend reversal will occur on more than one single penetrating Close, whether on an hourly, daily or weekly chart basis; i. e. there will be at least two consecutive closes that pierce the moving average. My next chart, of GE, shows the 200-day (thick dark magenta line) and 50-day (thin light magenta line) averages:

It can be useful to use combinations of moving averages as a trading input. For example, buying some puts on an initial downside penetration of a 5 or 8-day moving average, especially if there are other bearish chart considerations (e. g. a breakout below a trading range), but only taking one-half of the number of options of a usual purchase. A further purchase could be made after a close below the 13 or 21-day moving average.

It is also often appropriate to wait for a time and see if a support/resistance 'role reversal' comes into play. If the 50 or 200-day moving average has been coinciding with a series of highs or lows and these averages are frequently stopping or 'deflecting' price swings, such moving averages are acting as resistance or support. Just as with prior lows or highs and with trendlines, their can be role reversal. Once 'broken' (pierced), support can 'become' resistance and resistance become subsequent support.

For example, the 21 or 50-day moving average has been acting as support on a decline or in a sideways trend. Prices then decline below the 50-day average and keep falling in the short-term. On the next rebound the 50-day average 'deflects' the rally. Such price action relative to the moving average should be assumed, until otherwise resolved, to be a definite sign of a bearish trend reversal.

As declines often LOSE ground faster than advances GAIN ground with the price breaks sharper, there will typically be fewer occasions of prices rebounding back up to and then being deflected by, a key moving average; there are some occurrences of course.

Let's assume the reverse situation and that there's an upside breakout above some important moving average like the 200-day, which has been previously 'acting as' resistance. However, prices rally above the average and keep going in the short-term. If the index or stock then falls back to the average, only to rebound again, this provides an alert technically of a bullish upside reversal.

If other technical and fundamental aspects are also 'supporting' what is going on with a moving average penetration, the moving average break can provide a reason to initiate a trade. If so, the exit point on say long calls might be a move of a certain amount below the moving average; on long puts, a move back above the moving average by say 3-5% could be an exit point.

When a market or individual stock begins a sideways consolidation or goes into a trading range, the 50 and 200-day moving averages will, over time, flatten out. At this juncture the moving averages will act as a support area at times and offer resistance at other times, as can be seen in the chart below used in my (Essential Technical Analysis) book:

Difficulties are presented in knowing if one should stay in a shifting trend like the one shown above . If prices are moving above or below a key moving averages during these sideways trends or non-trending periods, use of exit points based on moving averages can result in being whipsawed . Being whipsawed is just a way of saying that soon after entry, there develops an opposite trend direction signal as closing prices 'whip' back and forth, above and below the moving average(s)in question.

To help avoid this frustrating situation, I tend to use whatever technical analysis tools might be providing a clear direction, such as seen in top or bottom patterns (e. g. double top, rounding bottom), trendline analysis and making use of key moving averages as a 'confirming' or secondary tool. An example is seen in my last chart:

GOOD TRADING SUCCESS!

Nasdaq 100 falls below 200-day moving average for first time in 10 months

The Nasdaq 100 NDX, -0.09% slumped 0.9% in early trade Friday, pushing the technology-friendly index below its widely-watched 200-day moving average for the first time since Oct. 16. The index has now lost 4.9% in four sessions, and 7.1% since closing at a more than 15-year high of 4,679.68 on July 20. The 200-day MA, which many chart watchers use as a dividing line between longer-term uptrends and downtrends, currently comes in around 4,384. Apple Inc.'s stock AAPL, -0.16% which is by far the index's most heavily-weighted component, fell below its 200-day moving average on Aug. 3, for the first time since September 2013, and hasn't been back above it since. Elsewhere, the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.23% closed below its 200-day MA on Thursday, for the first time since October. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.90% and S&P 500 Index SPX, +0.66% have had multiple closes below their 200-day MAs this month.

Intraday Datos proporcionados por SIX Financial Information y sujeta a condiciones de uso. Datos históricos y actuales al final del día proporcionados por SIX Financial Information. Datos intradía retrasados por necesidades de intercambio. S & amp; P / Dow Jones Indices (SM) de Dow Jones & amp; Company, Inc. Todas las cotizaciones están en tiempo de intercambio local. Datos de última venta en tiempo real proporcionados por NASDAQ. Más información sobre los símbolos negociados de NASDAQ y su estado financiero actual. Los datos intradía retrasaron 15 minutos para el Nasdaq, y 20 minutos para otros intercambios. S & amp; P / Dow Jones Indices (SM) de Dow Jones & amp; Company, Inc. Los datos intradiarios de SEHK son proporcionados por SIX Financial Information y tienen al menos 60 minutos de retraso. Todas las cotizaciones son en tiempo de intercambio local.

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21 day simple moving average

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Which Moving Average?

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1. ตัด Cross 2. ทะลุ 3. เข้าซื้อ

ตัด( Cross) ซื้อขึ้นเมื่อ MA 9 สีน้ำเงินตัดกับ MA 21 สีแดง

ทะลุ แท่งเทียนทะลุขึ้นไปยืนอยู่เหนือแนวต้าน และ Stochastic. 14. 3. 3 อยู่เหนือเส้น 50

ซื้อ เข้าซื้อเมือทั้งสามทำหน้าที่ตามกฏ StopLoss ที่ 7 pip อย่าลืมสำคัญหากผิดพลาด จะไม่เสียหายมากครับ แล้วค่อยเริ่มต้นรอโอกาสใหม่

หากยังไม่มั่นใจเวลาเข้าซื้อ ให้คุณเพื่อ parabolic SAR เข้าไป กฏเดิม ตัด ทลุ SAR เปลี่ยนทิศ Sto. เหนือเส้น 50 เข้าซื้อก็ได้นะครับเพื่อความมั่นใจ เมื่อคุณทำได้หลาย ๆ ครั้งชำนาญมากขึ้นคุณจะรู้ว่าจะขายตรงใหนดีให้ได้กำไรมากที่สุด หากฝึกใหม่ ๆ กำไรแล้วรีบขายเลยก็ได้ อย่าเสียดาย เพราะยังมีเวลาอีกมาก จังหวะดี ๆ มีหลายครั้งต่อวันครับ

ขอเพิ่มเติม MACD อีกเรื่องนะครับ ในขณะที่ MA 9 และ 21 ตัดกันไม่ว่าตัดขึ้นหรือตัดลงให้คุณดู MACD เพื่อเป็นเครื่องยืนยันอีกทีครับ ทุกครั้งที่ตัดกันหาก ตัดขึ้น MACD ต้องยืนอยู่เหนือ +0.00 ถึงจะซื้อขึ้นได้ ตรงข้ามกัน MA 9 และ 21 ตัดลง MACD ต้องอยู่ใต้ -0.00 หรือกลับหัวลงถึงซื้อลง ตามลูกศรที่เห็นครับ

- และห้ามซื้อสวนเทรนเด็ดขาด หากเทรนลงก็รอซื้อลงอย่างเดียว หากเทรดขึ้นก็รอซื้อขึ้นอย่างเดียว สังเกตที่ MACD ที่ 5 m, 15 m ก็ได้ หากเทรนขึ้น MACD จะอยู่เหนือ +0.00 ครับ

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Moving Average Crossover Alert: Sanderson Farms (SAFM) January 21, 2016

by Zacks Equity Research Published on January 21, 2016 |

¿Es usted un inversor técnico? If so, it may be time to consider Sanderson Farms, Inc. ( SAFM - Snapshot Report ) for your portfolio. The company just saw its 50 Day Moving Average breakout above its 200 Day Simple moving average, a trend that could indicate some bullishness in the future for SAFM.

This trend may have already begun, as shares of SAFM have moved by higher by 7.9% in just the past month. Plus, SAFM has earned itself a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), so there is plenty of reason to believe that the run for Sanderson Farms has plenty of life left.

More bullishness may especially be the case when investors consider what has been happening for SAFM on the earnings estimate revision front lately. None estimate has gone lower in the past two months, compared to 1 higher, while the consensus estimate has also moved higher too.

Por lo tanto, dado este movimiento en las estimaciones, y los factores técnicos positivos, los inversores pueden querer ver este candidato breakout de cerca para obtener más ganancias en el futuro cercano.

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What Put-Call Ratios Tell You

Founder and President, McMillan Analysis Corporation

It is more important to know how much total money is being spent on puts versus calls, than merely to know the volume, writes the man who wrote the definitive book on options - Larry McMillan .

Put-call ratios are useful, sentiment-based, indicators. The put-call ratio is simply the volume of all puts that traded on a given day divided by the volume of calls that traded on that day. The ratio can be calculated for an individual stock, index, or futures underlying contract, or can be aggregated-for example, we often refer to the equity-only put-call ratio, which is the sum of all equity put options divided by all equity call options on any given day. Once the ratios are calculated, a moving average is generally used to smooth them out. We prefer the 21-day moving average for that purpose, although it is certainly acceptable to use moving averages of other lengths.

The chart on the right above is a sample one-of IBM. Buy and sell points are marked on the chart. Note that buy signals occur when the ratio is "too high" (i. e. near the top of the chart) and sell signals occur when the ratio is "too low" (near the bottom of the chart). The chart on the left above is that of IBM common stock, with the put-call ratio buy and sell signals marked on it. You can see that, in general, the signals are good ones. In reality, we couple technical analysis-using support and resistance levels-with the signals generated by the put-call ratios. The combining of the two methods normally produces better-timed entry and exit points in our trades.

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Each point on the chart indicates the value of the uniformly weighted moving average for that subgroup. The moving average for the i th subgroup ( A i ) is defined as where w is the span, or number of terms, of the moving average. You can specify the span with the SPAN= option in the MACHART statement or with the value of _SPAN_ in a LIMITS= data set.

Central Line

By default, the central line on a moving average chart indicates an estimate for , which is computed as If you specify a known value ( ) for, the central line indicates the value of .

You can compute the limits in the following ways:

as a specified multiple ( k ) of the standard error of A i above and below the central line. The default limits are computed with k =3 (these are referred to as limits ).

as probability limits defined in terms of , a specified probability that A i exceeds the limits

The following table presents the formulas for the limits:

Table 21.19: Limits for Moving Average Chart

These formulas assume that the data are normally distributed. If standard values and are available for and , respectively, replace with and replace with in Table 21.19. Note that the limits vary with both n i and i .

If the subgroup sample sizes are constant ( n i = n ), the formulas for the control limits simplify to Refer to Montgomery (1996) for more details. When the subgroup sample sizes are constant, the width of the control limits for the first w moving averages decreases monotonically because each of the first w moving averages includes one more term than the preceding moving average.

If you specify the ASYMPTOTIC option, constant control limits with the following values are displayed:

For asymptotic probability limits, replace k with in these equations. You can display asymptotic limits by specifying the ASYMPTOTIC option.

You can specify parameters for the moving average limits as follows:

Specify k with the SIGMAS= option or with the variable _SIGMAS_ in a LIMITS= data set.

Specify with the ALPHA= option or with the variable _ALPHA_ in a LIMITS= data set.

Specify a constant nominal sample size for the control limits with the LIMITN= option or with the variable _LIMITN_ in a LIMITS= data set.

Specify w with the SPAN= option or with the variable _SPAN_ in a LIMITS= data set.

Specify with the MU0= option or with the variable _MEAN_ in a LIMITS= data set.

Specify with the SIGMA0= option or with the variable _STDDEV_ in a LIMITS= data set.

There are few published guidelines for choosing the span w . In some applications, practical experience may dictate the choice of w . A more systematic approach is to choose w by considering its effect on the average run length (the expected number of points plotted before a shift is detected). This effect was studied by Roberts (1959), who used simulation methods.

You can use Table 21.20 and Table 21.21 to find a combination of k and w that yields a desired ARL for an in-control process ( ) and for a specified shift of .

Table 21.20: Average Run Lengths for One-Sided Uniformly Weighted Moving Average Charts

For example, suppose you want to construct a two-sided moving average chart with an in-control ARL of 100 and an ARL of 9 for detecting a shift of . Table 21.21 shows that the combination w =3 and k =2.5 yields an in-control ARL of 101.24 and an ARL of 8.61 for .

Note that you can also use Table 21.20 and Table 21.21 to evaluate an existing moving average chart (see Example 21.2 ).

The following SAS program computes the average run length for a two-sided moving average chart for various shifts in the mean. This program can be adapted to compute averages run lengths for various combinations of k and w .

In the preceding program, the size of the span w (SPAN) is 4 and the shifts in the mean are introduced to the variable (Y) after the first 100 observations. The first DO loop specifies shifts of various magnitude, the second DO loop performs 50000 simulations for each shift, and the third DO loop counts the run length (TIME), that is, the number of samples observed before the control chart signals. A large upper bound (15000) for TIME is specified so that the run length is uncensored.

The program can be generalized for various span sizes by assigning a different value for the variable SPAN and changing the expression for X appropriately. Optionally, you can compute the ARL for a one-sided chart by changing the limits, that is, x>3/sqrt(span) . This was the technique used to construct Table 21.20 and Table 21.21.

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See MACMA1 in the SAS/QC Sample Library

The previous example illustrates how you can create moving average charts using raw data (process measurements). However, in many applications the data are provided as subgroup summary statistics. This example illustrates how you can use the MACHART statement with data of this type. The following data set (CLIPSUM) provides the data from the preceding example in summarized form:

A listing of CLIPSUM is shown in Figure 21.3. There is exactly one observation for each subgroup (note that the subgroups are still indexed by DAY). The variable GAPX contains the subgroup means, the variable GAPS contains the subgroup standard deviations, and the variable GAPN contains the subgroup sample sizes (these are all five).

The Data Set CLIPSUM

Figure 21.3: The Summary Data Set CLIPSUM

You can read this data set by specifying it as a HISTORY= data set in the PROC MACONTROL statement, as follows:

The resulting moving average chart is shown in Figure 21.4. Since the LINEPRINTER option is specified in the PROC MACONTROL statement, line printer output is produced. The asterisk (*) specified in single quotes after the subgroup-variable indicates the character used to plot points. This character must follow an equal sign.

Note that GAP is not the name of a SAS variable in the data set but is, instead, the common prefix for the names of the three SAS variables GAPX, GAPS, and GAPN. The suffix characters X . S . and N indicate mean . standard deviation . and sample size . respectivamente. Thus, you can specify three subgroup summary variables in a HISTORY= data set with a single name (GAP), which is referred to as the process . The variables GAPX, GAPS, and GAPN are all required. The name DAY specified after the asterisk is the name of the subgroup-variable .

Moving Average Chart for Gap Measurements

Figure 21.4: Uniformly Weighted Moving Average Chart from Summary Data

In general, a HISTORY= input data set used with the MACHART statement must contain the following variables:

subgroup variable

subgroup mean variable

subgroup standard deviation variable

subgroup sample size variable

Furthermore, the names of subgroup mean, standard deviation, and sample size variables must begin with the process name specified in the MACHART statement and end with the special suffix characters X . S . and N . respectivamente. If the names do not follow this convention, you can use the RENAME option in the PROC MACONTROL statement to rename the variables for the duration of the MACONTROL procedure step.

In summary, the interpretation of process depends on the input data set.

If raw data are read using the DATA= option (as in the previous example), process is the name of the SAS variable containing the process measurements.

If summary data are read using the HISTORY= option (as in this example), process is the common prefix for the names of the variables containing the summary statistics.

For more information, see "HISTORY= Data Set".

Moving Away from Moving Averages

Many technical strategists monitor the S&P 500's 17-week moving average of prices in relation to its 43-week moving average, believing they indicate a bullish trend when the 17 is above the 43, and a bearish trend when the nearer-term moving average is below the longer-term average.

Being a natural skeptic (but willing to leverage something if it works), I decided to see if this indeed was true, and whether it could also be used to help spot trend changes -- and create a market-timing technique -- for the S&P 500 and its sectors.

First, a word about moving averages, which are statistical tools used to determine the momentum of a stock, bond, fund, or index. A simple moving average is calculated by adding up all the price data for a specific period of time and then dividing the sum by the periods used. Moving-average levels that are above the price of the security are considered bearish, while those below the current price are bullish.

ESCAPE FROM TECH.

I first computed the monthly price performances for the S&P 500 and its sectors over the past 10-plus years (S&P came out with sector-level indexes in December, 1994). I then calculated the 10-year compound annual growth rates for the market and its sectors using this timing technique by buying each index during bullish trends and selling during bearish trends. I also compared these returns with those for straight "buy and hold" approaches during the same 10-year period.

Did this timing technique add value? Not in our opinion.

The performance of the overall S&P 500 index was helped by using this timing technique -- it had a 9.0% CAGR using the timing technique, vs. a 7.8% CAGR untimed, mainly because it got you out of the Information Technology & Telecommunications sectors early in the market meltdown of 2000-02.

DON'T GET BURNED.

But the timing technique actually hindered the performances of seven of the 10 sectors in the S&P 500. In fact, it cut in half the performances for the Energy, Industrials, and Financials sectors, and forced the Consumer Discretionary and Materials sectors into negative territory. Needless to say, it also increased the trading activity, which would have further affected actual returns due to higher transaction costs.

So if you're thinking of timing S&P 500 sectors with short - and longer-term moving averages, be careful. You might be disappointed. As with any back-tested technique, remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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Thread: Slow Moving average trading system

Slow Moving average trading system

This trading strategy is much familiar with the fast moving cross over trading system Thus if you read fast moving average system easily you may can understand it

This trading works is more better with the higher time frame. so we should at least start with hourly chart. daily or anyone whatever you like Indicators . We have to use couple of 7 multiply with 2 and 3 so setting for sma, 7sma,14sma and 21 sma How to take entry . when 7 sma break through/ goes through 14 sma and continue in the way and breach 2 as well so if 7sma going up we can buy/ if down we can sell . Where to exits. Attachment 543

When 7 sma again breach the 14 sma and try to reach near of the 21 sma or test it. hence we have to close the position

Beneficios de este sistema:

This trading is a really and extremely easy for the trading. because quite easy to understand. apply indicator one rule for entry/ exits quite similar

Pro Join Date Jan 2014 Posts 3,964 Bonus(¢) 13,580

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Very nice the use of three moving average is looking perfect there I think this is one of the good strategy for our entry point and I can see in the graph that we can get a lot of pips from this strategy I never used any trend following trading strategy til now but I will try to test this strategy. 7, 14 and 21 simple moving average use is looking very good thanks for this strategy

Rookie Join Date Dec 2013 Posts 11,504 Bonus(¢) 16,140

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uesd to work of the similar strategy with the beginning of career with the fx trading as later to focusing of the better on running of the different signals on confirming of the returns with the MA lines crossing. that the different chance should be applied to calls of the better on precision with the trader to defines of the good finale of options to put with the market order.

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This was a kind of trading system I started the career of forex trading with, except that mine is different setting as the period of use. It is very good, but only two lower period line are better than the whole three. This means that the three could be a bit late in telling the trader the direction the market will go, while the two are faster.

Rookie Join Date Dec 2013 Posts 11,504 Bonus(¢) 16,140

Received: 65 Given: 19

yes the work on confirming of the signals as using of the different preset with the MA periode should helps of trader to earns of the better precise with the options. as trader enter with the customs on profiles of the market on working by the choice on times and the distinct on pairs with the analytics on beginning of the good jobs.

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Its one of the very interesting trading strategy and very easy to use too. Any new trader can learn about this strategy without spend any big time on his chart screen we can just apply moving average and can get good knowledge about the market trend but some time moving average late signal so its very important to know about the best trading points in this moving average use

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Just like I have noticed, so has the thread starter stated it, this is a trading indicator that will work better with higher time frames. The more the time frame, the better is the result one will get with this system, because it would have been successfully filtered. To be sure of what you are doing with this system, try to use a very tight stop loss. Let it be at the right junction of turning of its cross.

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yes the higher preset of ma lines works on referring of the loose on chance as drawing of the longer trend capturing with the curve lines. and those to had of the further to work with the different signals on starting of the new beginning of the entry point on qualification to confirms of the order with the newer requests.

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Familiarity on how to use this properly can help us achieve a good income in here. I do know that many are just cautious about this. But if we really want to become a successful trader we need to learn how to trade good in here properly. Money is good in forex trading if we can sustain our learning process. So even if we loss we can still end up making some good profit in here.

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The use of the three moving averages at once is the main reason why this system is termed slow moving average. Slow moving averages, I means working with the three lines of moving averages are mainly for the trader that wants a more filtered trading direction, by what the analysis give to them, they will now be able to do what is right in the market.

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it is well known for all the types of indicators like the moving average it may give us a certain signal and quickly changes its point of view. we have to decide to adopt another way to get sure of the signals given by these indicators and also make an edit to these signals like reading the fundamental reports every day

DTS, Inc. (NASDAQ:DTSI) 50-Day Moving Average At 21.91

The research firms tracking DTS, Inc. (NASDAQ:DTSI) have specified earnings projections and future price on stock. As per the latest report, the stock can hit 34.20 in the coming year. In 2015, the firm EPS was 0.14, while EPS for next quarter can come at 0.45. First Call has specified the EPS estimates for ongoing and next fiscal, which stands at 1.07 and 2.14 respectively.

In today’s session, the stock registered first trade at 23.79, and so far in the day made a low of 23.61 and high of 23.94. N/A is listed on N/A and has a market cap of is N/A. The 3-month average daily volume was registered at shares.

When trading shares on technical parameters, all fundamental elements affecting a stock’s value are apparently already figured into the stock charts. Therefore, an investor can easily recognize stock’s trend without having to explore all types of fundamental information affecting that stock.

The 50-day MA of stock is 21.91, and the last price is distant from the last price. The stock’s high in 52-week was and the 52-week low was. It indicates that if N/A shares gains. it can cross the 52-week high, and if drops points, it will register a 52-week low.

Analysts pull in a firm’s valuation by applying financial ratios including price-to-earnings ratio. As per the latest stock price, N/A price-to-earnings ratio is. For this fiscal, the projection stands at compared to for next fiscal.

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Fractal Dimension Adaptive Moving Average (D-AMA) – Resultados de la prueba

The Adaptive Moving Average (AMA) modifies the amount of smoothing it applies to data in an attempt to adjust to the changing needs of a dynamic market. It makes these adjustments based on the readings from a Volatility Index (VI). Any measure of volatility or trend strength can be used, however in this article we will focus on how the AMA performs using the Fractal Dimension (D). This is the VI used in the FRAMA which has so far been the best performing Moving Average we have tested.

We did have to make one slight modification to the Fractal Dimension however. The Volatility index in an AMA needs to shift through a 0 – 1 range where higher readings indicate a stronger trend. The Fractal Dimension shifts through a 1 – 2 range where lower readings indicate a stronger trend. Therefore we shall use = ABS(D – 2).

The D-AMA requires four user selected inputs: A Fractal Dimension Period, a High – Low smoothing period range for the AMA and a power that Alpha is raised to. We tested trades going Long, using Daily data, taking End Of Day (EOD) and End of Week (EOW) signals

analyzing combinations of:

D = 40, 80, 126, 252

Alpha Power (P) = 0.5, 0.75, 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5

AMA Actual Fast Moving Average (FN) = 1, 4, 10, 20, 40, 60

AMA Actual Slow Moving Average (SN) = 100, 150, 200, 250, 300

The D lengths were selected due to the fact that they correspond with the approximate number of trading days in standard calendar periods: 40 days = 2 months, 80 days = ⅓ year, 126 days = ½ year and there are 252 trading days in an average year. In many of out past tests we have also tested VI lengths of 10 and 20 days, however these setting have always failed to yield the best results so we felt that it would be safe to omit them from this set of tests.

The AMA ranges were selected because they should capture the best results based on what we know from previous research into moving averages. Each time the Alpha Power was adjusted the SC and FC had to be modified to account for the change but the actual FN and SN stayed the same.

For instance a SC – FC range of 1 – 24 with alpha ^ 2 has an actual FN – SN range of 1 – 300 due to the effect of squaring alpha. Here is a table that shows the SC – FC ranges used so that the FN – SN ranges stayed constant regardless of ‘P’:

If that doesn’t make a lot of sense then please read our explanation of the Adaptive Moving Average. A total of 960 different averages were tested and each one was run through 300 years of data across 16 different global indexes (details here ).

Fractal Dimension Adaptive Moving Average – Modifying Alpha by Raising to a Power

Kaufman had a theory that by squaring Alpha and thus causing the AMA to slow rapidly when the data lacked a strong trend he would achieve better results. When we tested this theory on the ER-AMA we found it to be false but with a different VI we may reach a different conclusion. So lets look at the affect of raising Alpha to different powers:

Fractal Dimension – AMA, Alpha to the Power of 1 – Annualized Return

With Alpha ^1 there is no modification to Alpha at all. Clearly as the FC is increased the returns decline and as the FC gets higher the change in SC has more impact. Generally it appears as though a SC of 100 is best on a D-AMA with an unmodified Alpha. ER lengths of 80 and 126 yielded the best returns, this finding is similar to that of our previous tests on other ‘intelligent’ Promedios móviles.

Fractal Dimension – AMA to the Power of 2 – Annualized Return

By raising Alpha to the power of 2, returns at almost all the data points increased which is just the opposite of what we experienced when testing the ER-AMA. This shows that Kaufman’s theory of rapidly slowing the AMA during times where a trend is lacking had merit but is dependent on the VI being used.

The best results again came from ER lengths of 80 and 126 although an ER length of 40 did produce some notable returns. Changing the SC did not have as much of an effect with Alpha ^2 compared to Alpha ^ 1 however a SC of 24 (SN equivalent of 300) and a short FC tends to produce the best results. So lets rework the charts to focus on what we now know works best:

Now we are only looking at ER periods of 40, 80 and 126 with a FN of 1 and 4 and a SN of 300. Each data point plots the change in returns with Alpha raised to different powers. As you can see, the best returns resulted from an ER period of 126 with alpha raised to the power of 2. Therefore when using the Fractal Dimension in an Adaptive Moving average you are best to square alpha as suggested in the original formula.

Best EOD Fractal Dimension Adaptive Moving Average

I have included on the above chart the performance of the 126 Day FRAMA, EOD 4, 300 Long becuase so far this has been the best performing Moving Average. The 126 Day D-AMA, EOD 2, 24 Long ^ 2 put up a good fight against the FRAMA but ultimately underperformed by most measures to a small degree. On the Short side. the the D-AMA also underperformed slightly.

126 Day D-AMA, EOD 2, 24 ^ 2 – Smoothing Period Distribution

Looking at the smoothing distribution you can see the 126 Day D-AMA, EOD 2, 24 ^ 2 is very similar to that of the 126 Day FRAMA, EOD 4, 300 but the FRAMA allows the average to slow down more often.

126 Day D-AMA 2, 24 ^ 2 – Alpha Comparison

To get an idea of the readings that created these results we charted a section of the alpha for the 126 Day D-AMA 2, 24 ^ 2 and compared it to the best performing FRAMA and the best D-VMA to see if there were any similarities that would reveal what makes a good volatility index.

You can clearly see that all three use the same VI, the only difference is how they manipulate Alpha. Remember, higher readings result in a faster average so the D-AMA is obviously the fastest of the three while the FRAMA appears to shift through the widest range.

Best EOW Fractal Dimension Adaptive Moving Average

There are times when an average with a longer trade duration better suits ones needs so we also ran the tests looking for the best average using EOW signals, here is the one that came out trumps:

We have included on the above chart the performance of the 252 Day FRAMA, EOW 40, 250 Long becuase so far this has been the best performing EOW Moving Average. The 252 Day D-AMA, EOW 111, 372 Long ^0.75 is almost identical to the FRAMA but does outperform it by a fraction. They are so similar in fact that they may as well be the same average. Performance on the short side tells the same story.

252 Day D-AMA, EOW 111, 372 ^ 0.75 – Smoothing Period Distribution

The smoothing distribution for the 252 Day D-AMA 111, 372 ^ 0.75 has a smaller range than that of the 252 Day FRAMA 40, 250 but the median, lower quartile and minimum are almost identical. You can view an Alpha Comparison Here .

Conclusión

In our tests on the ER-AMA we came to the conclusion that the squaring of alpha as suggested in the standard AMA formula was actually detrimental to performance. However when using the Fractal Dimension as the VI, squaring Alpha was beneficial. Therefore the best Power to use in manipulating alpha varies depending on the VI in use.

Overall the D-AMA produced results that were near identical to that of the FRAMA but the D-AMA is a slightly faster average. The best performing EOD D-AMA was the 126 Day ER-AMA, EOD 2, 26 ^ 2 while the best EOW or ‘slower’ moving average was the 252 Day D-AMA, EOW 111, 372 ^ 0.75.

It is very difficult to pick between the FRAMA and the D-AMA but becuase the FRAMA offers a slightly longer trade duration it the best Moving Average we have tested so far.

Want to use this indicator? Get a free Excel spreadsheet at the flowing link under Downloads – Technical Indicators: Adaptive Moving Average (AMA). It will automatically adjust to your choice of many different VIs including the Fractal Dimension used in this article.

For more in this series see – Technical Indicator Fight for Supremacy

An entry signal to go long (or exit signal to cover a short) for each average tested was generated with a close above that average and an exit signal (or entry signal to go short) was generated on each close below that moving average. No interest was earned while in cash and no allowance has been made for transaction costs or slippage. Trades were tested using End Of Day (EOD) and End Of Week (EOW) signals on Daily data. P. ej. Daily data with an EOW signal would require the Week to finish above a Daily Moving Average to open a long or close a short while Daily data with EOD signals would require the Daily price to close above a Daily Moving Average to open a long or close a short and vice versa.

We used the average annualized return of the 16 markets during the testing period. The data used for these tests is included in the results spreadsheet and more details about our methodology can be found here .

252 Day ER-AMA, 9 – AMA Indicator Equivalent

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All data provided here at this blog www. rajkamalstockoptions. blogspot. com & www. rajkamalstockoptions. com are only information services for investors and are not individualized recommendations to buy or sell securities, nor offers to buy or sell securities. The publishers of reports, reviews and analysis under www. rajkamalstockoptions. blogspot. com & www. rajkamalstockoptions. com are not acting in any way to influence the purchase or sale of securities. The information provided is obtained from sources deemed reliable from purely technical analysis but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness or as to the results obtained by individuals using such information.

These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit & Loss. We are not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance.

We do not hold any positions in any of our given calls. Visiting our website or blog one should agree to our terms and condition and disclaimer also.

Trimble Navigation Limited (NASDAQ:TRMB) 50-Day Moving Average At 21.18

The research firms tracking Trimble Navigation Limited (NASDAQ:TRMB) have specified earnings projections and future price on stock. As per the latest report, the stock can hit 25.09 in the coming year. In 2015, the firm EPS was 0.47, while EPS for next quarter can come at 0.32. First Call has specified the EPS estimates for ongoing and next fiscal, which stands at 1.26 and 1.42 respectively.

In today’s session, the stock registered first trade at 24.90, and so far in the day made a low of 24.63 and high of 25.30. N/A is listed on N/A and has a market cap of is N/A. The 3-month average daily volume was registered at shares.

The 50-day MA of stock is 21.18, and the last price is distant from the last price. The stock’s high in 52-week was and the 52-week low was. It indicates that if N/A shares gains. it can cross the 52-week high, and if drops points, it will register a 52-week low.

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I want to develop calculation for stock price moving average. But much complex calculation have been planned later. My first step to know how to calculate Moving Average efficiently. I need to know how to take the input and return output efficiently.

considered input Date and Price.

consudered output Date, Price and Moving Average.

If I have 500 records and I want to calculate Moving average for 5 days what is the effient way instead of going back and forth in the array of Date and Price? again please sugest what is the best way to receive input (ArrayList, Table, array etc) and return output.

Note: Todays MA of 5 days will be average of Last 5 Days including today price. Yesterday MA will be average of last 5 days from yesterday. I want to keep the days to be flexible instead of 5 it could be 9, 14, 20 etc.

Thursday, April 10, 2008 3:21 PM

If you need simple calculation without your effort than you can use TA-Lib. But if you want your calculation to be more efficient than TA-Lib, then you can create your own technical indicator. TA-Lib is great, but problem is that this library have only static methods. That means when you need to calculate SMA array values based on 500 price bars, then you will send the whole array of bars and it will return array of SMA values. But if you receive new 501-st value then you should send again the whole array and TA-Lib again will calculate and return SMA array of values. Now imagine you need such indicator on real price feed, and for every price change you need new indicator value. If you have one indicator is not a big problem, but if you have hundreds indicators working, it could be a performance problem. I was in such a situation and start developing realtime indicators which are efficient and do additional calculations for new price bar or for changed price bar only. Unfortunatelly I never needed SMA indicator for my trading systems, but i have such for EMA, WMA, AD, and others. One such indicator AD is published on my blog and you can see from there what is the basic structure of my realtime indicator class. I hope you will need small changes to implement SMA indicator, because is one of the simplest one. The logic is simple. To calculate SMA all you need is n last price values. So class instance will have collection of prices, that will store keep only last n number of prices as SMA is defined (in your case 5). So when you have new bar, you will remove oldest one and add new one and create calculation.

Thursday, April 10, 2008 4:04 PM

Todas las respuestas

There is a library called TA-Lib that does all that for you and it is open source. It has about 50 indicators I think. We've used it in production environment and it is very efficient and realible. You can use it in C#, Java, C++, etc.

Thursday, April 10, 2008 4:04 PM

I would calculate the moving average in the database via a stored procedure or in a cube. Have you looked at Analysis Services, it has the ability to calculate moving averages.

Thursday, April 10, 2008 4:05 PM

Sí. TA-LIB is good but may not be suitable for me. When I add new value or updated value for the history of records I will do the calculation in a separate function only for that new quote and store it in database. I am planning to update the quote every hour. I need to do about 25 to 30 technical indicators for 2200 stocks.

Thursday, April 10, 2008 5:51 PM

Execution time of a TA-Lib call on an array of 10000 elements takes about 15 milliseconds (on an Intel Core Duo 2.13 Ghz). This is the average of all the functions. Among the fastest, SMA takes less than 2.5 milliseconds. The slowest, HT_TRENDMODE, takes 450 milliseconds.

With less elements it is faster. SMA takes about 0.22 milliseconds for 1000 input elements. The speed gain is almost linear (the overhead of performing the function call is negligible).

In the context of your application, TA-Lib is very unlikely to be your bottleneck for speed performance.

Also I generally do not recommend such "last n" solution. Read below for details.

First, a correction to Boban. s statement All functions in TA-Lib can also calculate a single last value by using a minimum of "last n" elementos.

You can have an array of size 10000, have data initialize only for the first 500 elements, add one element and call TA-Lib to calculate the SMA only for the new element. TA-Lib will look backward no more than needed (if SMA of 5, then TA-Lib will calculate a single SMA using the last 5 values). This is made possible with the startIdx and endIdx parameter. You can specify a range to be calculated, or a single value. In this scenario you would make startIdx = endIdx = 500 to calculate the 501st element.

Why is such "last n" solution potentially dangerous to some? Regardless of selecting Boban. s solution or TA-Lib consider that using a small finite number of past data won't work well with most TA functions.

With SMA, it is obvious that you just need n element to calculate an average over n element. It is not as simple with EMA (and many other TA functions). The algo often depend on the previous value to calculate the new value. The function is recursive. That means all past values have an influence on future values. If you decide to "limit" your algo to use only a small amount of past 'n' value, you will not get the same result as someone who calculates over a large number of past values.

The solution is a compromise between speed and precision. I have often discuss this in the context of TA-Lib (I call it the "unstable period" in the documentation and forum). To keep it simple, my general recomendation is if you can't make the difference between an algo with a finite impulse response (FIR) from an algo with an infinite impulse response (IIR), you will be safer to calculate over all the data you have available.

TA-Lib specify in the code which of its functions have an unstable period (IIR).

Edited by mfortier Friday, August 15, 2008 4:25 AM Correct english sentence

Friday, August 15, 2008 4:20 AM

I have a ton of data that I'm feeding through R in order to generate averages. The relevant data involves dates and temperature readings. There are often multiple temperature readings for a single day. The dates span approximately 6 months.

Two to the critera the researchers requested were described as the following:

Average Weekly – 7 day rolling average (not calendar week) Average Max – 7 day rolling max

So, if my data started on 1/1/13, I'd average ALL the temperature readings between 1/1/13 and 1/7/13, and then do the same thing for 1/8/13 - 1/15/13 and so on. I've been told elsewhere on Stack that this is actually called a " average-by-week-of-year ", though I'd admit I don't quite get how it's not a moving average. I've done some research, but total newb that I am, I've struggled to understand how to approach this problem.

For the visual among you, this is essentially the sort of data I'm dealing with (the actual data. frame looks a lot different (see the dput head below) and is several thousand records long, but these are the proper names of the two relevant columns):

I've been looking at the xts library:

This looks promising but I can't see to quite figure it out and the documentation isn't helping too much.

xts(x = mydf, order. by = DATE(x), frequency = 7.

¿Ideas? Gracias.

Here's a small sample of the dput head info:

Systematic Trading Plan: Current 200 Day Moving Average Signals for March 21, 2011 0 comments

I often mention that certain technical points, such as the 200 day moving average can serve as support or resistance. This week during the Japan crisis, a few Indexes moved below the 200 day moving average. Many of these have recovered back in the past 2 days including the Japan EWJ Index.

At Seleznov Capital Advisors we watch these key levels to see the Index breaks down or the trend continues up. You can get these trading alerts nightly from our Daily Trading Signals Service. You may also sign up for our Free Weekly Commentary at the top right of our home page at www. seleznovcapitaladvisors. com

System Trader’s and Market Timing traders may use the 200 day Simple Moving Average as their trading plan. The 200 day moving average is basic technical analysis. It is a good market timing trading plan for active trading in indexes and ETF’s that have trend following characteristics. It can produce disastrous results if used for every stock index, ETF, or stock.

Other widely followed moving averages are the 50 day moving average and the 100 day moving average. Some money managers will use these moving averages with a shorter moving average and use the cross of the shorter moving average above or below the longer moving average to generate trading signals. The Wall Street Journal displays a 65 Day Moving Average in their charts. The goal of two moving averages and even 3 moving averages is to eliminate whipsaws that often occur with moving averages as a technical analysis indicator.

Why should you care about the signals produced with the 200 day moving average? There are so many people using the 200 day moving average, that we will often see extreme volatility in indexes when they cross both above and below the 200 day moving average. It has been reported that Endowments like Harvard and Yale use the 200 Day Moving Average in modeling their portfolios.

The below chart shows the current 200 day simple moving average condition on over 50 most actively traded ETF’s.

You should not trade any system trading plan without proper back testing and analysis of the trading characteristics of the index, stock or ETF you are trading.

These trading signals are provided courtesy of the website you are viewing. This information should not be used without research and advice from a financial professional.

Be aware that this condition can and will change any day in the future .

We monitor the 200 day moving average daily along with a number of other system trading plans.

There is No “Holy Grail” in trading systems. Do not use the 200 day SMA or any other system trading system without proper research on the asset.

For questions on rule based, system trading, contact

Элементарная стратегия на пересечении машки 21. Используем любую пару. При повышении цены. Стоп ниже последнего Лоу. Цель расстояние от открытого позиции до Лоу, в сторону Бай. При нисходяшем движении ровно наоборот. открываем 2 лота. Если цена передвинулась 30 пунктов, закрываем один лот, второй передвигаем на безубыток. Если цель ниже 30 пунктов то ждем победного или трагического конца. unesdoc. unesco. org unesdoc. unesco. org

Работа ведется в демо счете, если позволит бонусный счет то поработаем этим счетом.

Век живи, век учись.

Пример. Думаю буду работать в Н1.

Идею украл с настоящего форума, надеюсь автор не будет обежатся.

Век живи, век учись.

Эксперимент это есть эксперимент. Открыл в 15М. на селл. В теории я должен был открыт три свечки назад. После закрытия свечки за 21 мувинг. Открыл 3 лота. Подумал третий лот оставлю так, как цена может убежать на много.

Век живи, век учись.

Закрыл один лот 300 баксов, 30 пунктов. Перевел остальные две на безубыток. :-) Были бы реалные денги, я бы не сдержался, закрыл бы все в 10 пунктов. И реально открыл бы 1 лот максимум. или 0.01 Закрыл вторую в 40 пунктов. Хотя цель была 55. Дисциплина храмает, нервы понимаетели. Третий лот поставил трейлинг стоп 30 пунктов. И цель 1.4306. Так как 4300 психологическая цифра.

Век живи, век учись.

В теории цель достигнута. Но у меня открыта одна позиция с трейлинг стопом 30 пунктов.

Интересный момент в Н1 в теории надо открывать другую позицию на селл. Тут стоп и цели большые.

Третя цель закрылась 4306.

Век живи, век учись.

Тайм фрейм Н1. Игры большого характера. Цели и стопы большие. Поставил селл стоп. 1 лот. Оставим на ночь. Цена быстра пошла 55 пунктов. Поставил трейлинг стоп 35 пунктов. Сомневаюсь на сколько это правильно? при достижении 60 пунктов закрыл 0.5 половину позиции.

Век живи, век учись.

Не хочу вам испортить настрой, но все же посчитал нужным поделится цитатой из книги "Основные*правила*торговли*с*помощью*одиночной*ско льзящей*средней*просты:*покупайте,* когда*цены*(обычно*закрытия)*поднимаются*выше*скол ьзящей*средней,*продавайте,*когда*цены* падают*ниже*скользящей*средней.*В*результате*получ ается*простая*оборотная*система,*которая* все*время*присутствует*на*рынке.*Мы*не*рекомендуем *эту*систему*торговли.*Независимо*от*того,* какую*скользящую*среднюю*вы*выберете,*при*длительн ом*использовании*будут*периоды*дохо‐ дов*и*периоды*потерь,*а*общий*результат*будет*коле баться*около*нулевой*отметки*минус*сто‐ имость*трансакций.*Наверное,*лучше*всего*использов ать*одиночную*скользящую*среднюю*в*ка‐ честве*фильтра* трендов.*Если*цены*выше*средней,* торгуйте* только*на*длинной* стороне*рынка,* используя*какой‐нибудь*другой*более*чувствительный *метод*для*определения*вхождений*и*вы‐ ходов." (с) Успехов! [Ответ]

Профит. ура. Я сам не верил. Странно но факт.

Век живи, век учись.

Сообщение от SoulJAH : Не хочу вам испортить настрой, но все же посчитал нужным поделится цитатой из книги "Основные*правила*торговли*с*помощью*одиночной*ско льзящей*средней*просты:*покупайте,* когда*цены*(обычно*закрытия)*поднимаются*выше*скол ьзящей*средней,*продавайте,*когда*цены* падают*ниже*скользящей*средней.*В*результате*получ ается*простая*оборотная*система,*которая* все*время*присутствует*на*рынке.*Мы*не*рекомендуем *эту*систему*торговли.*Независимо*от*того,* какую*скользящую*среднюю*вы*выберете,*при*длительн ом*использовании*будут*периоды*дохо‐ дов*и*периоды*потерь,*а*общий*результат*будет*коле баться*около*нулевой*отметки*минус*сто‐ имость*трансакций.*Наверное,*лучше*всего*использов ать*одиночную*скользящую*среднюю*в*ка‐ честве*фильтра* трендов.*Если*цены*выше*средней,* торгуйте* только*на*длинной* стороне*рынка,* используя*какой‐нибудь*другой*более*чувствительный *метод*для*определения*вхождений*и*вы‐ ходов." (с) Успехов!

Мне кажется итог за периуд не зависит от стратегии, как токовой. Я считаю если шанс 50 на 50 и при "правильном" торговли мы должны получить плюс в итоге. Под "правильном" торговлей много смысла, которого я сам до конца не понял.

Век живи, век учись.

Добрый день. решил вот тоже немного вмешаться. Цитаты цитатами, но средние это есть не что иное как чистая математика отклонений, а следовательно средние будут хорошо себя показывать на трендовом рынке. Если взять период размером в год или даже 3 года, и торговать тупо по каждому сигналу (тобишь роботом) то да, соглашусь с вашим мнением и мнением автора книги получим ноль, но мы же не роботы и соответсвенно выжидая нужные нам трендовые участки мы будем очень хорошо зарабатывать. Вопрос как всегда банален как отфильтровать флет, и вот тут как раз нет ответа ни в одной книге. (по крайней мере я на такие не попадал).

UzTrader . а вот по стратегии есть у меня предложение и некая критика. как я тут описал, машка дело хорошее и как показывает практика практически все на них и постороенно, проблема одна - флетовая дерготка. так вот выходов из ситуации несколько. 1. это попробовать отфильтровать сигнал по положению машки на старшем ТФ, к примеру на м15 машка наклонилась вниз, появился пробой и закрытие, вот в этот момент можно заглянуть на час к примеру и посмотреть куда там маша наша вывернулась, если она торчит вверх то это не запрещает наш сигнал на м15 но заставляет нас задуматься о том как далеко будет потенциальный профит (а он по сути должен оказаться на уровне машки на часе, так как касание и отбой происходит в 90% случаев), и соответственно если наш профит и наш потенциальный лось не равны и лось больше, я бып серьезно поморщил мозг на счет того стоит ли отрабатывать такой сигнал. 2. это подобрать такой ТФ и такой инструмент на котором флет будет минимальным по времени и если и будет давать сигналы то мало. 3. придумать фильтр флета, а сие сложнова-то.

Успехов в вашем начинании на этом можно и нужно зарабатывать.

Сообщение от Milirikon : Добрый день. решил вот тоже немного вмешаться. Цитаты цитатами, но средние это есть не что иное как чистая математика отклонений, а следовательно средние будут хорошо себя показывать на трендовом рынке. Если взять период размером в год или даже 3 года, и торговать тупо по каждому сигналу (тобишь роботом) то да, соглашусь с вашим мнением и мнением автора книги получим ноль, но мы же не роботы и соответсвенно выжидая нужные нам трендовые участки мы будем очень хорошо зарабатывать. Вопрос как всегда банален как отфильтровать флет, и вот тут как раз нет ответа ни в одной книге. (по крайней мере я на такие не попадал).

Согласен, правда и на вашей стороне. Но нужно понимать что так-как большинство не знает как фильтровать флет, а он скажу вам начинается ну уж очень размыто, а еще хуже. из флета рождается движение. то пока мы будем фильтровать можно потерять как раз те прибыльные сделки. Конечно не говорю что от фильтров нужно совсем отказаться! желательно себя немного в рамки загонять все равно. Будущее не узнать и по этому придется как ни крути действовать как робот + интуиция + опыт

ПС да еще далеко не факт что данный подход покажет себя хуже во флете чем в тренде [Ответ]

Сообщение от SoulJAH : Согласен, правда и на вашей стороне. Но нужно понимать что так-как большинство не знает как фильтровать флет, а он скажу вам начинается ну уж очень размыто, а еще хуже. из флета рождается движение. то пока мы будем фильтровать можно потерять как раз те прибыльные сделки. Конечно не говорю что от фильтров нужно совсем отказаться! желательно себя немного в рамки загонять все равно. Будущее не узнать и по этому придется как ни крути действовать как робот + интуиция + опыт

ПС да еще далеко не факт что данный подход покажет себя хуже во флете чем в тренде

Абсолютно с вами согласен именно в этом плане, все покажет статистика и расчет. на сколько помню присматривал я как-то за этокой системкой, так вот остановился на простом фильтре - не просто закрытие за машкой, а именно присутствие там цены, тоесть открытие и закрытие за машкой, к примеру, трех свечей, но это надо просматривать для каждого инструмента в отдельности.

SoulJAH и SoulJAH прочитал Вашы мнения. Спасибо. Буду добавлять дополнительные фильтры или сигналы. О которых буду писать в открываемых позициях.

Век живи, век учись.

Сообщение от UzTrader : Вложение 123395 Профит. ура. Я сам не верил. Странно но факт.

А чего удивительного собственно. Ведь сами по себе МА это самый простой и сильный инструсент. Вот только многие его как то не очень воспринимают, по всей видимости из-за его простоты, но как известно, тут как про краткость сестру таланта )).

Успех - это способность идти от поражения к поражению не теряя оптимизма. (У. Черчилль)

Еше одна сделка. Не очень она нравится так как основной тренд как вы знаете нисходящий. А сделка на покупку. сделка на 0.5 лота . Цели и стоп - неотемлимая часть в графике.

Век живи, век учись.

Открыл вторую сделку по евро 15М. Сильная линия поддержки на Н1. Там нарисовался треугольник. Закрыл одну сделку при движении половины пути. 17 пунктов.

Век живи, век учись.

:-) Закрылся по профиту. Так как меня рядом не было. Я хотел закрыт еше один лот и третий оставить трейлинг стопом.

А швечарский франк закрылся убытком. Но лот был 0.5 не сравнит с евро который дал профит с лотом 3. Мани менежмент.

Век живи, век учись.

В желтом квадрате М15 цена закрылась под мувингом. Но в Н1 тренд восходящий. Не открываем на селл. :-) А наоборот ждем закрытия над мувингом М15 и откроем на бай. unesdoc. unesco. org unesdoc. unesco. org

Век живи, век учись.

Сообщение от UzTrader : Вложение 123689 В желтом квадрате М15 цена закрылась под мувингом. Но в Н1 тренд восходящий. Не открываем на селл. :-) А наоборот ждем закрытия над мувингом М15 и откроем на бай. unesdoc. unesco. org unesdoc. unesco. org

Очень рад, данная сделка прямо таки бальзам, продолжайте, завтра если будет время попробую посоветовать еще, маненько интересных весчей, хотя конешно если они нужны, так как они будут касаться рискменеджмента и манименеджемнта. Если нужны маякните отпишусь. просто не хочу быть навязчивым и строить из себя гурень :-)

Put/Call Ratio Soaring

In just the past couple weeks, an extremely intriguing anomaly has arisen in the US stock markets. The famous Put/Call Ratio 21-day moving average has soared above 1.00 for the first time in at least a decade! This odd development is vexing bulls and bears alike.

The Put/Call Ratio. or PCR, is a powerful technical trading indicator that monitors the stock and stock-index bets that speculators are making at any given time. Speculators who expect individual stocks or the indices to fall in the months ahead buy put options, derivatives bets which increase in value when prices decline. Speculators who expect rising prices buy call options, which promise hefty payouts on higher prices.

The PCR quantifies the ratio of the daily trading volume in these two opposing bets, granting speculators valuable insights into what the majority happens to be expecting. When the PCR is above 1.00, as today, it literally means that the daily trading volume on puts is higher than calls. Translated into pure sentiment terms, it indicates that the majority probably expects lower prices in the months ahead. And since we humans are naturally bullish, a PCR above 1.00 is an extraordinarily rare event.

Today's high PCR anomaly is difficult to interpret, as I will outline in this essay. Both bullish and bearish cases can be built around this surreal development, and the contrarian slant on this is complex as well. While I certainly wish there was an easy bullet-proof interpretation of this odd event, its sudden appearance today within the context of current market conditions is a puzzling mystery.

Before we dive into these intriguing charts, it is important to realize that the raw PCR data is immensely volatile and not conducive to graphical analysis. The day-to-day PCR numbers jump all over the place depending on each day's stock-market performance.

On May 4th, for example, the S&P 500 closed modestly higher by 0.2%, its second minor up day in a row. As speculators were generally bullish, call volume far exceeded put volume and yielded a PCR of only 0.67 which is pretty low. Just two days later on May 6th, however, this three-day up streak ended with a trivial little 0.7% loss in the SPX. Yet this spooked speculators so much that the PCR soared to 1.26 on that day, a very high level. Even though the markets were only down by 0.5% net in these few days, the raw PCR rocketed higher by an enormous 88%!

Since graphing this raw data looks like an electrocardiogram of someone overdosing on drugs right before their heart explodes, speculators use a moving average to smooth it out. The most common moving average applied to the PCR is the 21 day. 21 days may sound like a strange number to use, but it makes a lot of sense. The average month has 21 trading days, so the PCR 21dma is effectively a one-month smoothing of the underlying hyper-volatile raw PCR data. In this essay, whenever I say "PCR" I am really referring to the PCR 21dma shown in these graphs.

Our first graph this week compares the flagship S&P 500 with the PCR 21dma in order to illustrate the broad strategic trends. In this big-picture context it is easy to understand how the PCR tends to behave and why the current spike above 1.00 in 21dma terms is such a strange anomaly. These graphs are updates from last June's "Trading the Put/Call Ratio 2 " essay.

These strategic PCR trends really help illustrate why this ratio of options speculations is such a powerful proxy on general sentiment. The higher the PCR the greater the general fear in the marketplace, and the lower the PCR the higher the general greed. Fear tends to be the highest at Great Bear bottoms while greed waxes to unbelievable extremes near Great Bull tops. The PCR tracks these sentiment trends beautifully.

During the latter years of the Great Bull surging into the late 1990s, the PCR was in a well-defined downtrend, which makes sense. The longer the bull lasted and the higher stocks surged, the more people grew convinced that the bull market would last forever. Remember the deafening cacophony of bullish hype in the late 1990s? General sentiment swung farther and farther towards naked greed as call trading soared while puts languished, driving down the PCR.

Provocatively the PCR carved its long-term bottom in March 2000, just as the US stock bubble reached it all-time peak. At the time the PCR 21dma actually plummeted to 0.43, indicating that the trading in bullish call volume was actually running more than twice as high as the bearish put volume. The contrarian nature of this indicator becomes crystal clear when you realize that just at the very moment when the tech bubble topped and people ought to have been betting on a coming crash via puts, calls gaming on even higher markets were all the rage.

As the Great Bear awoke from its multi-decade slumber soon after, the secular PCR downtrend changed into an uptrend. In bear markets the PCR gradually spirals higher and higher until it ultimately peaks at the Great Bear bottom when popular pessimism is overwhelming. In October 2002 at the latest major interim lows, the PCR peaked at 0.98. This suggested that general bearishness was so high that the trading volume in puts almost equaled the trading volume in calls.

And since these latest SPX lows prior to last year's spectacular war rally cyclical bull. the PCR trend has been decaying but generally down. From a strategic perspective, the primary trend in the PCR tends to move in the opposite direction of the general markets. As optimism surges in bulls relative put volume falls lowering the PCR, and as pessimism grows in bears relative put volume rises raising the PCR. Piece of cake so far, right? The general PCR theory is easy and intuitive.

OK, now it gets messy. At the very right edge of this chart, you can see the magnificent recent spike in the PCR 21dma. It has soared above 1.00 for the first time in at least a decade, and quite possibly ever since options trading has only been growing popular for a couple decades or so, almost all of which was in a primary bull market. This soaring PCR of the past couple weeks creates all kinds of problems for bulls and bears alike.

Zooming in to the tactical perspective, PCR tops generally mark major interim lows in the stock markets over the short-term as well. Each of the three highest preceding PCR peaks, all circled above, marked major tradable lows in both bull and bear markets. Our new PCR high should fit into this same contrarian framework, that short-term pessimism is far too high and therefore bullish, which would be great news for the bulls. It might not be this simple this time around though.

Next to the red PCR line above, there are solid yellow arrows drawn in. These arrows represent earlier major spikes in the PCR similar to ours today. If you look at each of these arrows, you will note that the stock markets had to fall hard in order to spawn the great fear necessary to drive up a major spike in the PCR 21dma. Yet when we examine our current PCR spike the stock markets have certainly not fallen sharply, but fear is still soaring. Weird!

The only other time in the past decade when we have witnessed such a massive PCR spike of similar magnitude was during the 1998 financial crises which rocked the US equity markets. As currencies devalued, leveraged hedge funds like Long-Term Capital Management imploded, and the very stability of the entire global financial system was believed to be in jeopardy by the Fed at the time, pessimism and therefore put buying went ballistic. It took a brutal 19.3% S&P 500 correction over only 31 trading days in the summer of 1998 to generate the huge PCR spike from 0.58 to 0.92, a 59% increase.

Yet during today's anomalous PCR spike, there have been no major financial crises! Foreign currencies aren't being eviscerated, hedge funds aren't falling from the sky like ducks on the opening day of hunting season, and the Fed and Wall Street are not worrying about the entire derivatives pyramid unraveling. From its latest interim closing high of 1158 in early February, the S&P 500 had only fallen by a slow and unimpressive 6.4% as of mid-May. Yet, the PCR has still soared from 0.68 to 1.01, a huge 48% increase!

With the S&P 500 not even plunging below its key 200dma this time around yet, and not having witnessed a sharp and frightening correction, and no international financial crisis underway, why is the PCR registering record amounts of fear these days? What has people so spooked and what is really going on in the markets underneath the surface? Put volume is soaring indicating that speculators are generally expecting lower prices ahead, but why?

These questions are very important. In the awesome movie "The Matrix", one of my all-time favorites, whenever our heroes were within the computer-generated artificial-reality Matrix they carefully looked for signs of anomalies like dГ©jГ vu, seeing the same thing twice in a row. Such events indicated a glitch in the Matrix's fabric and suggested something was wrong, like the bad guys were popping into the Matrix nearby. In the financial markets anomalies work similarly. When something weird happens it is best to pay attention as it can be a warning or precursor, subtle yet important.

This odd PCR spike to record highs within its current strange context may be a glitch in the Matrix. Our next graph zooms in a bit closer, just to the Great Bear and war-rally cyclical-bull years, in order to gain a clearer perspective of what is happening in PCR land. We can use it to ponder the bullish and bearish cases built around this soaring PCR.

Since being bullish after the powerful rally last year is the most fashionable market worldview to hold these days, we will start with the bullish arguments. The bullish case begins in October 2002 when the S&P 500 bottomed and the PCR topped following a brutal summer selloff. As you can see above, the waterfall decline of mid-2002 was the greatest plunge in absolute and percentage terms in this entire Great Bear to date.

After bouncing a couple times near this crucial SPX 800 level of support, war fears drove the markets lower into early 2003. As Washington started bombing Baghdad, however, the terrifying uncertainty leading into the invasion vaporized. Without this oppressive uncertainty hobbling them, the markets soared for the better part of a year, skinning the bears alive in 2003. The bulls rejoiced over perpetually rising profits and stock prices, and believed a new long-term bull had been reborn out of the 1990s bull's ashes.

The PCR played along with this bullish interpretation really well. It reached its peak in October 2002 and entered a downtrend as the markets marched higher. While its downtrend wasn't as steep as that witnessed in major bull markets in the past, it was still a downtrend. Relative to call trading, put volumes dwindled as more and more bears grew tired of being pummeled on the losing side.

While today's anomalous PCR spike soared high enough to easily shatter the upper resistance line of its bull-market downtrend, the bulls aren't concerned. They point out, and rightfully so, that interim PCR highs usually coincide with major interim lows in the equity markets. If you look at any major PCR spike in the graph above before today's, you will note that they always occurred just as the markets were ending a sharp correction. And while the recent months' correction was not sharp by any stretch of the imagination, it was still a correction.

This short-term trading focus suggests that today's stellar PCR is a telltale marker for a major bottom and a precursor for much higher markets to come in the months ahead. This short-term contrarian viewpoint is often, but not always, right. The bulls may certainly be right this time of course, as the markets have generally done well leading into presidential elections in history. But the bulls really need this PCR spike to die soon so it can quickly collapse back into its downtrend channel. If it doesn't, they are in serious trouble.

The bears aren't buying this bullish interpretation of the new PCR highs, however. They point out that never in history have stock markets carved major long-term bottoms at valuations anywhere near as high as they were in late 2002 and early 2003. I remain in this camp myself, being a contrarian and believing that the only way to consistently win in long-term investing is to buy when stock prices are relatively and absolutely cheap in historical context.

The recent PCR downtrend following its late 2002 top did present a problem for the bears last year. In theory, pessimism and put trading should be the highest at the deepest, darkest, and ugliest days of the long-term bottom. Sentiment should be blackest right before the dawn, and it was certainly ugly in the summer and early autumn of 2002. But was sentiment negative enough? No lo creo.

If you lived through the secular bottoms of 1974 and 1982, when stocks traded at 8.3x and 6.6x earnings respectively, and yielded 5.4% and 6.2% in dividends, then you know what real negative sentiment feels like. At the time popular financial magazines ran cover stories proclaiming the death of the stock markets, and the thundering masses loathed stock investments with a passion. If you have a university with a business school library in your area, spend some evening reading the newspapers and magazines from late 1974 and mid-1982 to get a feel of how utterly hopeless real bottoms feel.

October 2002, on the other hand, while ugly, was not a sentiment or valuation extreme by historical standards. Stock investing never went out of favor like it does when people have given up hope of even finding the bottom. At these latest interim lows, stocks still traded around 26x earnings and only yielded less than 2% in dividends, almost historical bubble levels. The late 2002 lows looked nothing like a true, brutal, hopeless secular bottom in history where stocks are universally hated .

Now since options trading was not yet popular in 1974 right as it was born nor later in 1982, no one really knows yet what a PCR would look like at a hellish long-term market low. As I mentioned a year ago in "Trading the Put/Call Ratio 2 " however, put volume ought to exceed call volume considerably . After all, if sentiment is at multi-decade lows, shouldn't put buying be at stellar highs in the speculation community? Here is a quote from last year, which incidentally was laughed at as lunacy then&

"I strongly suspect that before this Great Bear fully runs its course that the PCR 21dma will exceed 1.00, that over at least one 21-trading-day period the average put volume will be higher than the average call volume. It is hard to imagine a Great Bear ending without the majority of market players, including the options folks, waxing overwhelmingly bearish and extensively trafficking in put options accordingly. A PCR 21dma over 1.00 will be necessary to mark those fateful days when options bears finally outnumber options bulls."

The current anomalous PCR spike has an important strategic bearish interpretation too. Since the PCR 21dma just exceeded 1.00 for the first time, and since this level is already higher than the PCR highs reached at the late 2002 interim bottom, this suggests that October 2002 was not the long-term bottom. The PCR should reach all-time extremes at the Great Bear bottom, but the sub-1.00 levels of late 2002 have already been exceeded. Therefore they weren't the ultimate!

This bearish interpretation, based on both sentiment and valuations, supports extending the PCR uptrend of the Great Bear. This is drawn in with the yellow extended rising trendlines in the graph above. If the war rally of last year really was just an especially powerful bear-market rally, then perhaps the PCR is now correcting back up into its original bear-market uptrend channel. Maybe the real anomaly is not this PCR spike, but the PCR slump that led it temporarily below its secular uptrend in the last quarter of 2003!

If this bearish view proves correct, then the PCR 21dma should ultimately travel far higher than 1.00 at the true Great Bear bottom, establishing a major new record high. If the Great Bear is indeed reawakening from its year-long slumber to maul overvalued stocks lower again, then today's PCR levels don't look at all out of place within the PCR's extended secular bear uptrend channel.

Whatever the reason, fear is soaring in the equity markets driving the Put/Call Ratio to record highs. Perhaps it is speculators betting on a new bear downleg buying the puts. Perhaps it is long bull investors hedging their downside risks at these overvalued levels buying the puts. And perhaps terrorism fears and geopolitical uncertainty are contributing to this increased bearish interest too.

At any rate, this current PCR anomaly bears careful watching. We will continue monitoring it and the unfolding stock-market scene in our acclaimed monthly Zeal Intelligence newsletter, launching new trades as appropriate. In light of the growing possibility that the extended Great Bear uptrend channel in the PCR is back in play, I am adjusting our range of interest on this key indicator up slightly to correspond with and straddle this secular trend pipe, to 0.85 to 1.15 for short-term trading signals.

Only time will tell whether the bearish put buyers are correct this time around, but the new record-high PCR levels greatly weaken the case that the October 2002 lows were the ultimate bear-market bottom.

Put buying when everyone gives up hope and stocks trade down near 7x earnings ought to be stupendous and not exceeded again for decades until the trough of the next Long Valuation Wave rolls through.

Here is a combination of 2 hull averages. [ATTACH]218129[/ATTACH]

Arrows and alerts are triggered when the slopes are the same (not as in the "simple" version where it is enough to have a slope change - in this one both must go into same direction)

It be interesting to have an EA around this and run tests? ¿Nadie? If mladen interested and it looks hot, then put in elite for purchases. Gracias.

Hmm, no, hot is different. In sideway markets you only loose and this heavily and in trending markets you're always late, like Psar. If you can't stand your money, donate it to someone who needs it, not to your bank.

Just one remark. neo269 uses 15,80 for periods. I used 15,20 for periods on my example even though I left the defaults at 15,80 in the indicator parameters (80 is way to slow - at least for my taste ). In my opinion better (but that depends on what is one looking for) better to have closer periods (like that 15,20) to make it more responsive

Re: Hull Moving Average

Of course one have to try many things before one get a good setup. But a two hull average EA isn't that good. MA cross and double slope confirmation may be popular but weak formations. It doesn't tells you much about the market, only that a few bars went down or up. This can be seen only by looking on chart as well and it may cumber to see the important infomations. Everyone must learn, trial and error, but an EA only of this is no good idea. But this is only my opinion.

Comentario

Re: Hull Moving Average

@mladen Thanks a lot for Indi. I am using Supply Demand Zones 15m MTF as confirmation & trade on 5M chart using your indi. So I go long when there is positive bias i. e. 15&80 are green + price is near 15M demand zone as confirmation. As always sideways market are very tough to trade so any ideas are welcome to increase odds.

Comentario

Re: Hull Moving Average

Since I happen to know some of krelian99 thinking (hence my like to his post ), maybe I can add something to this whole thing. moving averages are good. But they are almost always obvious. Maybe the best usage of averages of any type is not for trend determination but for filtering data before using that same data in some other calculation (hence - de-noising data before using it)

Probably 2 keys are most important in the whole TA. adapting and momentum. There are quite a few very good adaptive averages (which, because they are adaptive, are stopping being "just" averages) and finding out the momentum (rsi is one of the best ways to find the momentum - which we then, often mistakenly call a trend). There are also some very good rsi variations that are able to struggle with momentum too

Maybe you should try some adaptive averages for start (like the simplest adaptive T3 - some versions posted here https://www. forex-tsd. com/metatrader-4/268-t3-29.html#post622107 ) to see what exactly is te difference between smething that adapts itself to market volatility and when something does not do that __________________

SP: just to clarify - I have heard a million times that adaptive repaints. Nothing, but nothing can be further from the truth. So far, I haven't made a single repainting adaptive indicator and there is no reason whatsoever for an adaptive indicator to repaint. Ninguna.

Thanks @mladen for your guidance.

Do you mean I use T3 (2 variations) + RSI?

Try them out Compared to Hull, you shall find that T3 (even the regular one) has one advantage. it overshoots less. With adaptive version you are less sensitive to market changes.

For rsi. the regular rsi can be used for quick momentum changes (recommended rsi periods are always <= 10 - rsi tends to get flatter when period is longer) or use some of the changed rsi indicators (rsioma is not a bad indicator at all, for start) _________________

Check for combinations. If the hull x 2 works for you, then do not change it (we can not know the exact way how you are using it - to paraphrase one famous troll at mt site "we are not mind readers" ). But I think that ideas flow that is going on here is a good thing and that is why I posted the additional post - the most important thing we have is to exchange ideas not "magic indicators and eas"

Comentario

Intel Corporation stock changes 1.21 from moving average

Deutsche Bank reaffirmed their buy rating on shares of Intel (NASDAQ: INTC ) in a research note released on Sunday morning, MarketBeat. Com reports.

Intel's expected tax rate is based on current tax law and current expected income and may be affected by the jurisdictions in which profits are determined to be earned and taxed; changes in the estimates of credits, benefits and deductions; the resolution of issues arising from tax audits with various tax authorities, including payment of interest and penalties; and the ability to realize deferred tax assets. The stock ended up at $33.16.

Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) last announced its quarterly earnings results on Tuesday, October 13th. The 52-week low of the share price is at $24.87. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which is accessible through this link. Also, President Renee Jo James sold 3,602 shares of the stock in a transaction on Wednesday, September 9th. Also, VP Gregory R. Pearson sold 1,506 shares of the firm's stock in a transaction on Thursday, October 22nd.

Agilent Technologies Inc. (NYSE: A) reported that its board of directors has raised the company's quarterly dividend to 11.5 cents per share of ordinary stock. The stock was trading on a volume of 445,791.00shares and the average volume of the stock remained 1.20 million shares.

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) will host its annual Analyst Day on October 19th. The company has a market capitalization of $163.56 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.90. The chip maker reported $0.64 EPS for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of $0.59 by $0.05. The company's 50-day moving average price is $33.09 and its 200-day moving average price is $31.01. During the same quarter in the prior year, the firm posted $0.66 earnings per share. The company's revenue was down.6% compared to the same quarter past year.

Macquarie predicts that data center business growth of 15% is possible at Intel . thanks in part also to the company's leading position in the semiconductor space. When we called for the coming dividend hike, our view was that Intel would raise its dividend to $1.00 per share on an annualized basis, so this is double the dividend hike that we were looking for. Following the completion of the sale, the chief executive officer now directly owns 357,426 shares in the company, valued at approximately $12,163,206.78. The dividend will be paid on January 27, 2016, to all shareholders of record as of the close of business on January 5, 2016. The disclosure for this sale can be found here. The ex-dividend date is Wednesday, November 4th.

Intel Corporation designs and manufactures integrated digital technology platforms. The platforms of the Company are employed to deliver a range of computing experiences in laptops, 2 in 1 systems, desktop computers, servers, tablet computers, smartphones, and also the Internet of Things. In addition, it develops and sells software and services focused on security and technology integration.

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE: BABA) has launched an NT$10 billion (US$310 million) entrepreneurs fund for Taiwan, hoping to support entrepreneurs interested in leveraging Alibaba's platforms in e-commerce, logistics, mobile platforms, cloud computing and financial services, says an announcement. All Other section includes Non-Volatile Memory Options Group, Netbook Group, and New Devices Group.

Microsoft suddenly decides not to offer Windows 10 November update via Media To check for the TH2 update. the user is required to change the settings in Advanced Options from Update & Security options. But the data does show a growing trend to upgrade to the latest Microsoft operating system.

Key moving average is broken

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Ask Colin

If I use a 21-week exponential moving average crossover for entries and exits (with time filters) I get a lot of false starts, but losses would have been greater without it. ¿Qué piensas?

When I first learned about moving averages years and years ago, I spent a lot of time playing with them and tested lots of systems based on them on lots of charts. Some of my conclusions are:

Even with any filter I could think of, moving average crossovers were a far from good system. They work fine in a strong bull market when stocks trend strongly and clearly. However in sideways and down markets, they give too many false starts as you say.

It does not seem to matter what type of moving average I used SMA, EMA or WTA, the results were similar. Everything I did confirmed the well-known idea that trend following indicators only work as trading systems in trending markets. The rest of the time you get whipsawed to death.

In a few words - trading just is not that simple, although I understand a few very expensive black box computerised trading systems may be based on such a naive idea.

As you have observed, they will help you cut losses. However, there are lots of ways you can set stops and this is only one. It is nothing special in my experience, but definitely better than nothing.

MetaTrader 4 - Indicators

Envelopes - indicator for MetaTrader 4

Descripción:

Envelopes technical indicator is formed with two Moving Averages one of which is shifted upward and another one is shifted downward.

La selección del número relativo óptimo de los márgenes de banda que cambian se determina con la volatilidad del mercado: cuanto más alto es este último, más fuerte es el cambio.

Los sobres definen los márgenes superior e inferior del rango de precios. La señal de venta aparece cuando el precio alcanza el margen superior de la banda; La señal de compra aparece cuando el precio alcanza el margen inferior.

La lógica detrás de los sobres es que los compradores y vendedores exagerados empujan el precio a los extremos (es decir, las bandas superior e inferior), momento en el cual los precios a menudo se estabilizan moviéndose a niveles más realistas. This is similar to the interpretation of Bollinger Bands.

Cálculo

Upper Band = SMA(CLOSE, N)*[1+K/1000]

Lower Band = SMA(CLOSE, N)*[1-K/1000]

SMA — Simple Moving Average;

N — averaging period;

K/1000 — the value of shifting from the average (measured in basis points).

Imagen:

Technical Indicator Description

Full description of Envelopes is available in the Technical analysis: Envelopes

EUROPEAN STOCKS: Major European bourses are initially seen trading modestly lower Friday. Spreadbetters Cantor Index are calling the FTSE down 7, the DAX down 9 and the CAC off 6.

US STOCKS: The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 45 pts at 12623.98 and the Nasdaq Composite closed up 19 pts at 2788.33. US index futures are trading narrowly mixed in Asian trade Friday. The S&P Mar contract was last down 1.8 points at 1308.6, with the Nasdaq Mar contract up 1.75 points at 2427.0. Dow futures are 10 points lower at 12577.

JGBS: Japanese government bond prices were lower, weighed down by overnight declines in U. S. Treasury prices led by easing safe-haven bond demand. JGBs briefly cut some losses in the wake of investors' bargain-hunting but today's rise in the Nikkei stock index impeded dip-buying. The benchmark 10-year yield was 1.5 bps higher at 0.980%.

JAPAN STOCKS: Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Friday's session higher, extending gains seen in the previous 4 sessions. The Nikkei ended up 1.47%, to stand at 8766.36. The broader-based TOPIX was higher by 14.96 points at 755.64.

FX MARKETS: Euro continued the rally started on Monday with the US market adding to the "risk-on" trade following successful, albeit expected, auctions in France and Spain yesterday. Strong jobless claims data and comments from ECB's Draghi that the LTRO program was working well kept the tempo alive, with euro dollar pushing up through solid resistance at $1.2925 to highs of $1.2971. Asia markets have had little to do with the pair this morning trading a $1.2954-73 range. HSBC China Flash Mfg PMI failed to excite, with market content to consolidate ahead of the Chinese New year celebrations on Monday. Elsewhere was a similar story with Cable bolted down in between $1.5476-97 and dollar-yen through Y77.05-21. Aussie-dollar continues to lag the euro recovery as euro-aussie hauls itself off its recent all time lows of A$1.2228 to highs this morning of A$1.2463, leaving aussie-dollar to continue to hover just above $1.0400.

OIL: Crude futures are trading modestly higher in Asian trade Friday, having been tied to narrow ranges in thin trade. The front-month WTI contract was last 11 cents higher at $100.35 to $100.53.

BUND: (H12) Moves to Test 21-Day Moving Average

RES 4: 142.11 2% volatility band RES 3: 140.72 1% volatility band RES 2: 140.23 High 13 Jan RES 1: 139.66 5-day moving average

PREVIOUS CLOSE: 139.03

SUP 1: 138.84 Low 19 Jan SUP 2: 138.70/73 21-day moving average, Low 13 jan SUP 3: 138.46/49 50% retracement of 136.69 and 23.6% of 132.87 rallies SUP 4: 138.04 61.8% retracement of 136.69/140.23

COMMENTARY: Daily studies are reversing from overbought territory as the Bund moves to test the 21-day moving average. Fibonacci levels include 138.88, Y138.46/49 and 138.04.

Eurostoxx50 Techs: Tests Bollinger Band

RES 4: 2523.9 61.8% retracement of 2887 decline RES 3: 2506.2 High 28 Oct RES 2: 2474.0 200-day moving average RES 1: 2435.0 Closing high 19 Jan

PREVIOUS CLOSE: 2435.0

SUP 1: 2384.0 5-day moving average SUP 2: 2332.0 21-day moving average SUP 3: 2283.0 55-day moving average SUP 4: 2279.7 Low 9 Jan

COMMENTARY: Daily studies turned back higher as the market builds on recovery from the 21-DMA to test the Bollinger band. Looking ahead, bulls need to focus on extending gains to the 200-day moving average.

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Estrategias Forex Estrategia Forex, Estrategia simple, Estrategia Forex Trading, Forex Scalping

Even at the most basic indicator forex - Moving Average can build a profitable trading strategy FOREX or the so-called trading system.

For example, we construct two MA (Moving Average) with different periods of 21 and 70 (depending on the selected time interval, select the type of Moving Average - EMA (at intervals ranging from daily: D1, W1, MN) or SMA (charts within days. M1, M5, M15, M30, H1, H4).

After breaking through the price of one of Moving Averages, you need to wait — pause and wait for the closing of the current candle. If prices on the chart turned around before reaching the 2-nd moving average (the older period — 70), then enter the market at the intersection (or a little earlier) MA (21).

Stop-loss at this place a little below the bottom of a recently formed or peaks.

In this strategy, forex course, there are some drawbacks . and one of them — is spurious signals that may make this trading system at the end of the trend . But there is certainly a very important advantage — it’s the fact that trading in this strategy, you will always follow the trend . despite the wishes of an inexperienced trader to trade against the main trend.

Examples of entry into the market looking at the picture:

Change of the same basic trend, we will indicate the intersection of the 2 moving averages . If the MA with a period of 21 crosses of MA in 1970 from top to bottom, then the trend reversed to downward and can be sold. If on the contrary — tu puedes comprar

The Arms Index is a market indicator that shows the relationship between the number of stocks that increase or decrease in price (advancing/declining issues) and the volume associated with stocks that increase or decrease in price (advancing/declining volume). It is calculated by dividing the Advance/Decline Ratio by the Upside/Downside Ratio.

The Arms Index was developed by Richard Arms in 1967. Over the years, the index has been referred to by a number of different names. When Barron's published the first article on the indicator in 1967, they called it the Short-term Trading Index. It has also been known as TRIN (an acronym for TRading INdex), MKDS, and STKS.

The Arms Index is primarily a short-term trading tool. The Index shows whether volume is flowing into advancing or declining stocks. If more volume is associated with advancing stocks than declining stocks, the Arms Index will be less than 1.0; if more volume is associated with declining stocks, the Index will be greater than 1.0.

The Index is usually smoothed with a moving average. I suggest using a 4-day moving average for short-term analysis, a 21-day moving average for intermediate-term, and a 55-day moving average for longer-term analysis.

Normally, the Arms Index is considered bullish when it is below 1.0 and bearish when it is above 1.0. However, the Index seems to work most effectively as an overbought/oversold indicator. When the indicator drops to extremely overbought levels, it is foretelling a selling opportunity. When it rises to extremely oversold levels, a buying opportunity is approaching.

What constitutes an "extremely" overbought or oversold level depends on the length of the moving average used to smooth the indicator and on market conditions. Table 5 shows typical overbought and oversold levels.

Open ARMS Index Calculation:

10 Period Moving Average of Advancing Issues / 10 Period Moving Average of Declining Issues 10 Period Moving Average of Advancing Volume / 10 Period Moving Average of Declining Volume

The Open-10 TRIN is a smoothed variation of the Arms Index. It is a market breadth indicator that uses advancing/declining volume and advancing/declining issues to measure the strength of the market.

The interpretation of Open-10 TRIN (also called the Open Trading Index) is similar to the interpretation of the "normal" TRIN.

Readings above 0.90 are generally considered bearish and readings below 0.90 are considered bullish.

This is another modification of Moving Average with Single Crossover where we use two different period of Moving Average instead of one. The first period is the Fast MA, which represents the smoothed price without ripple. The second period is the Slow MA which has the lagging characteristic. The trading signal will be generated when Fast MA is crossing the Slow MA. There are 12 Moving Average methods available: SMA. AMA. EMA. EPMA. SMMA. SWMA. MMA. TMA. VMA. WMA. WiMA. ZLEMA .

& # 160; See the following links on related Moving Average Indicators:

-Long entry signal will be generated when the Fast MA crosses above the Slow MA. - Short entry signal will be generated when the Fast MA crosses below the Slow MA.

Inputs: Price(Close), FastPeriod(5), SlowPeriod(14), Method(1); Variables: FastMA(0), SlowMA(0);

if Method<>1 then begin if Method=2 then begin FastMA = AMA(Price, FastPeriod,2,30); SlowMA = AMA(Price, SlowPeriod,2,30); fin; if Method=3 then begin FastMA = EMA(Price, FastPeriod); SlowMA = EMA(Price, SlowPeriod); fin; if Method=4 then begin FastMA = EPMA(Price, FastPeriod); SlowMA = EPMA(Price, SlowPeriod); fin; if Method=5 then begin FastMA = SMMA(Price, FastPeriod); SlowMA = SMMA(Price, SlowPeriod); fin; if Method=6 then begin FastMA = SWMA(Price, FastPeriod); SlowMA = SWMA(Price, SlowPeriod); fin; if Method=7 then begin FastMA = MMA(Price, FastPeriod); SlowMA = MMA(Price, SlowPeriod); fin; if Method=8 then begin FastMA = TMA(Price, FastPeriod); SlowMA = TMA(Price, SlowPeriod); fin; if Method=9 then begin FastMA = WMA(Price, FastPeriod); SlowMA = WMA(Price, SlowPeriod); fin; if Method =10 then begin FastMA = VMA(Price, FastPeriod); SlowMA = VMA(Price, SlowPeriod); fin; if Method=11 then begin FastMA = WiMA(Price, FastPeriod); SlowMA = WiMA(Price, SlowPeriod); fin; if Method=12 then begin FastMA = ZLEMA(Price, FastPeriod); SlowMA = ZLEMA(Price, SlowPeriod); fin; end else begin FastMA = SMA(Price, FastPeriod); SlowMA = SMA(Price, SlowPeriod); fin;

if CurrentBar>2 and FastMA crosses above SlowMA then Buy("Long") This Bar on Close; if CurrentBar>2 and FastMA crosses below SlowMA then Sell("Short") This Bar on Close;

*) benchmark are made based on $100K trading.

Pros: This strategy produce an impressive performance as compared to single crossover method. This reasonable because it removes the whipsaws in the price movement, and thus providing a clean crossover signal. Again ZLEMA stand high chance of winning rate due to it zero lag characteristic. Cons: However the major drawback of using this method is the double lagging cause by two moving average lag which cause a combinational lag. The lagging resulting in delay to enter to the trading and may cause some losses especially on the market condition where the price reversal rate is high.

& # 8211; Actually moving average is a low pass filter which removes the high frequencies part of trading price. If the moving average provide a smooth signal then we can use the moving average turning point as trading signal trigger. We will discus this more detail in my next blog.

True false 22. in order to update a moving average

Esta vista previa tiene secciones borrosas. ¡Regístrese para ver la versión completa! Ver documento completo

True False 22. In order to update a moving average forecast, the values of each data point in the average must be known. True False 23. Forecasts of future demand are used by operations people to plan capacity. True False 24. An advantage of a weighted moving average is that recent actual results can be given more importance than what occurred a while ago. True False 25. Exponential smoothing is a form of weighted averaging. Verdadero Falso

26. A smoothing constant of .1 will cause an exponential smoothing forecast to react more quickly to a sudden change than a smoothing constant value of .3. True False 27. The T in the model TAF = S+T represents the time dimension (which is usually expressed in weeks or months). True False 28. Trend adjusted exponential smoothing requires selection of two smoothing constants. True False 29. An advantage of "trend adjusted exponential smoothing" over the "linear trend equation" is its ability to adjust over time to changes in the trend. True False 30. A seasonal relative (or seasonal indexes) is expressed as a percentage of average or trend. True False 31. In order to compute seasonal relatives, the trend of past data must be computed or known which means that for brand new products this approach can't be used. True False 32. Removing the seasonal component from a data series (de-seasonalizing) can be accomplished by dividing each data point by its appropriate seasonal relative. True False 33. If a pattern appears when a dependent variable is plotted against time, one should use time series analysis instead of regression analysis. True False 34. Curvilinear and multiple regression procedures permit us to extend associative models to relationships that are non-linear or involve more than one predictor variable. Verdadero Falso

35. The sample standard deviation of forecast error is equal to the square root of MSE. True False 36. Correlation measures the strength and direction of a relationship between variables. True False 37. MAD is equal to the square root of MSE which is why we calculate the easier MSE and then calculate the more difficult MAD. True False 38. In exponential smoothing, an alpha of 1.0 will generate the same forecast that a naïve forecast would yield. True False 39. A forecast method is generally deemed to perform adequately when the errors exhibit an identifiable pattern. True False 40. A control chart involves setting action limits for cumulative forecast error. True False 41. A tracking signal focuses on the ratio of cumulative forecast error to the corresponding value of MAD. True False 42. The use of a control chart assumes that errors are normally distributed about a mean of zero. True False 43. Bias exists when forecasts tend to be greater or less than the actual values of time series. True False 44. Bias is measured by the cumulative sum of forecast errors.

Este es el final de la vista previa. Regístrese para acceder al resto del documento.

Apple Shares' 200-day Moving Average Ticks Lower For First Time In Nearly Two Years

By Tomi Kilgore Published August 21, 2015 Markets

Apple Inc.'s stock's 200-day moving average is ticking lower in afternoon trade Friday, for the first time in 22 months. This could be significant, because many chart watchers believe bearish technical signals based on the widely-watched long-term moving average are only truly bearish if it is moving lower. For example, many say a "death cross," which is when the 50-day MA crosses below the 200-day MA, isn't a negative signal unless both moving averages are declining. Apple's 200-day MA is currently at $121.6022, according to FactSet, compared with $121.6046 on Thursday. The last time the 200-day MA starting turning lower after an extended rising trend was Dec. 13, 2012, and it didn't turn back up again until Oct. 24, 2013. With the 50-day MA currently at $122.7189, down about 41 cents from Thursday, a bearish death cross could occur by the middle of next week.

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We have a number of new subscribers who have asked to explain this average, as we do tend to mention it on a frequent basis.

There are many indicators that come together in technical analysis to give us clues as to where a particular stock or commodity is headed. One of the most popular indicators is the moving average, which can be range from 5 days to 200 plus days. Market commentators and traders have their favourites, which have previously given them warnings of a directional change that influenced an investment decision to a successful conclusion.

For a definition of a moving average we turn to stockcharts. com who provide us with this definition:

“Moving averages are one of the most popular and easy to use tools available to the technical analyst. They smooth a data series and make it easier to spot trends, something that is especially helpful in volatile markets.”

Stockcharts is well worth a visit if you are a novice, as they will help you demystify the techno babble that can be confusing.

In a nutshell the 200-day moving average is the closing price of silver for the previous 200 days added together to form a grand total, which is then divided by 200 to deduce the average figure.

Now if we take a look at the chart for silver we can see that this average is represented by the blue line and has remained fairly steady until the end of 2007 when silver took off and this average started to head north, from around $13/oz to around $15/oz. We can also see that silver has revisited the blue line on three occasions in the last nine months (without splitting hairs too much). In various articles on both gold and silver we stressed the need for caution when silver prices have raced ahead causing a large disparity between the two. We have also taken advantage of buying opportunities when this average has fallen well below the average price for silver. The point being that these aberrations usually don’t last and they come back together sooner or later.

As this average moves forward we can see that as of today higher numbers in the $18/oz range are being added to this average. At the front end of the chart, lower numbers, in the $13/oz range are being removed and replaced as silver rises. From this we can conclude that this average will remain in the ascendancy for some time thus adding support to the price of silver.

In the short term Silver may well head down to meet this average, however, in the longer term this average will move up and close the gap eroding the existing disparity. This upward swing will help to provide a platform from silver can rally and finish the year a lot higher than it is now.

Today we have looked at this indicator in isolation and we are aware that there are many other factors to be considered. We hope that we have answered this question and helped in a small way and that you were not too bored!

Have a good one.

To stay tuned with our adventures, please sign up for our free newsletters by clicking these links, gold. silver and uranium stocks .

A Key Moving Average in Play Now

In trading there are moving averages that are watched by many traders. While the most popular are the 50 day and 200 day simple moving averages there is another very popular one that is watched and on many people’s radar. Many traders use the 20 day sma, 21 day sma, or the 21 day exponential moving average. Personally I have used the 20 day sma for market corrections to see if there is a bounce but today the 21 day ema seemed to be the support where buyers were waiting to get back on the up trend. Apple bounced there for two consecutive days and Google bounced there today sharply and quickly. On these charts you can see how over a long period of time where the 21 day ema acted as support and resistance many times when prices approached that level. For me the 21 day comes into play in a range bound sideways market and this is the reversion to the mean level for price. When price starts fighting with this level we are no longer trending we are range bound so it is a signal to buy the dips and sell the rips. Breakouts tend to be break downs at these levels, in healthy up trends the 10 day sma tends to be support. It is not the moving average itself that means anything it is the actions of the traders at that level that creates the meaning of support and resistance. Trade wisely my friends.

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Using moving – the Moving Average Forex Strategy

Details Published: 15 December 2013 Written by Jeremy Stanley Category: Trading strategies Hits: 1192

Among the many forex strategies those which are based on the moving average lines are probably the most common. Usually they are referred to as Moving Averages. This instrument is the easiest one for analyzing the current market situation, and therefore the most common one. Everyone knows about the simplicity of genius. But let's focus on our specific issue and see, what is the moving averages Forex strategy.

Assume that, as all economists say, all the requirements are met. That the interval of time is chosen, the pair is defined and lot sizes, stop-losses limit and even mental approach are there. The most interesting and the equally important here is the core of the trading strategy which is based on moving averages. We will try to describe two common online trading strategies which use moving averages.

The first strategy. The Moving Averages Forex Strategy that has parameters as follows: MA 200 and MA 21 with the shift in MA200-21 and AI 21-8.

We chose one-hour interval to show you the noise movements on the chart.

As you can see the principle is simple. When the long-term MA200 is below the price - the trend is upward. In this case, when the price graph crosses the MA 21 upwards, it is a signal to buy. At the same time MA200 is below the MA 21 and the price graph. Stop-losses can be tightening up, in accordance with the price graph movement.

The following picture shows the same signals, but for the sale. Orders are opened when the price graph crosses MA21 downward. In this case MA200 should be above MA21 and the price graph.

A very strong and long-term signal, should be outlined, when the price, breaking MA21, breaks MA200 immediately and MA21 itself crosses MA200 also. This is a long-term signal in both the upward and downward movements. The following picture shows a triangle which is formed as a result.

The Moving Average Forex Strategy has a disadvantage as well.

This strategy is very difficult to apply if the lateral movements occur. Since the price graph is uncertain in the direction towards the trend. This is understandable, since the moving averages themselves are trend indicators indeed. In such cases one can wait only or use other instruments.

The second approach. Moving Averages Forex Strategy can be realized in a following way as well.

The image shows a slightly different moving averages using tactic. The parameters are changed here. There are MA 34 (a red line) with the shift 13 and MA 13 (a green line) with the shift 5. In this situation the order is opened when MA 13 crosses MA 34. It is opened for sale, if it crosses downwardly. And it is opened for purchase if the trend is upward. It should be reminded that this method is acceptable even for the sideways movements, but only if there is a movement with sufficiently large maxima and minima, i. e. high amplitude motion. But if, after, let’s say, a bear market there was a real turning point of the trend, you should think about a long position. And no matter, is it an order to sell or an order to buy. The most important here is to sustain MA 13 and MA 34 intersection.

But this strategy also has a disadvantage. The lateral movement should not be too weak. Otherwise the moving averages will cross each other to much, and it will give too narrow difference in price, whereby the strategy will be ineffective.

The image shows the track of the price where the trading conducted under this strategy is difficult.

Thus, the Moving Averages Forex Strategy is, first of all is a trend strategy, as it is hardly possible to trade when the movements are lateral. The only solution here can be a temporary change of the interval. What is impossible to be done on a daily interval can be executed on the hourly one. Anyway the Moving Averages Forex Strategy is used by many traders regardless to the financial instrument which they analyze. Fuente: Dewinforex

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In trading on Friday, shares of the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (Symbol: IVV) crossed above their 200 day moving average of $203.50, changing hands as high as $203.73 per share. iShares Core S&P 500 shares are currently trading up about 1.6% on the day. The chart below shows the one year performance of IVV shares, versus its 200 day moving average:

Looking at the chart above, IVV’s low point in its 52 week range is $147.21 per share, with $215.23 as the 52 week high point – that compares with a last trade of $203.61.

Los puntos de vista y opiniones expresados son las opiniones y opiniones del autor y no necesariamente reflejan las de Nasdaq, Inc.

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